TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nick Hardtof Nick Hardt, Matias Soto
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,861
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,929

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,861 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x26b4…b8a9backed Matias Soto27c11,107$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,99936145.2%163 W · 198 L-19.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Nick Hardt73c8,139$5,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.668,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Nick Hardt69c5,205$3,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.314,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3705…9677backed Matias Soto38c3,949$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50013029.2%38 W · 92 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20b4…bfa2backed Matias Soto45c2,798$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25033540.9%137 W · 198 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be5…5c2abacked Nick Hardt50c2,412$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.742548%12 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-20.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Nick Hardt61c1,528$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.144,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Matias Soto51c1,504$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.979,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Matias Soto35c833.83$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.843,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x512a…d537backed Matias Soto39c747.44$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.989340.9%38 W · 55 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Matias Soto38c522.76$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.842,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Matias Soto51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2554,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nick Hardt47c387.95$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.588,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Matias Soto37c362.85$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.582,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Matias Soto61c327.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Nick Hardt63c327.83$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.883,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Nick Hardt64c313.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.51,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56f1…e83ebacked Matias Soto16c303.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026253.8%141 W · 121 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Matias Soto56c293.8$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.533,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Nick Hardt64c257.49$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.671,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked Nick Hardt64c242.62$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.3452557%299 W · 226 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nick Hardt45c226.2$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.3711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Matias Soto36c222.22$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Nick Hardt61c211$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.294,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Nick Hardt54c210$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.638952.2%203 W · 186 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd875…19cfbacked Matias Soto30c206.96$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Nick Hardt38c189.52$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.681,34949.8%672 W · 677 L-6.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Nick Hardt60c183.52$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.744,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Matias Soto58c169.79$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Matias Soto61c167.04$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.524,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d74…4944backed Matias Soto54c160.43$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8716469.5%114 W · 50 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x92c8…45f6backed Matias Soto43c155.4$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1922544.4%100 W · 125 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Nick Hardt32c153$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0451339.4%202 W · 311 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…8cb5backed Matias Soto10c151.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511530.4%35 W · 80 L-10.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5edb…00a9backed Matias Soto42c151.61$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1123842.9%102 W · 136 L-21.2wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Matias Soto53c150$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.56,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Nick Hardt59c147.24$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.315,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Matias Soto68c147$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.961,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Matias Soto58c143$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.941,22255%672 W · 550 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Nick Hardt49c140$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.445737.9%173 W · 284 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Nick Hardt60c137$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.873748%354 W · 383 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Matias Soto38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,18652.4%622 W · 564 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d6…9357backed Matias Soto56c125.8$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705971.2%42 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Nick Hardt75c119.96$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4285742.8%367 W · 490 L-23.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Matias Soto23c119.81$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.758,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Matias Soto27c108$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.351,76752.1%920 W · 847 L-2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Matias Soto34c107.08$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.911,22823.1%284 W · 944 L-164.0wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-47%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Matias Soto29c105$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.151,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Nick Hardt61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3953043%228 W · 302 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea6…428abacked Nick Hardt46c97.83$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8328348.1%136 W · 147 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Nick Hardt59c95.92$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.482,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Matias Soto37c90$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.31,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed Matias Soto52c88.89$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.391,33746%615 W · 722 L+23.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Nick Hardt62c88.76$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.733,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Nick Hardt62c88$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.445,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed Matias Soto58c86.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.88742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54d1…3abfbacked Matias Soto38c81.58$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3126734.1%91 W · 176 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73c3…fd98backed Nick Hardt65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.929354.8%51 W · 42 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c1…3174backed Nick Hardt65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9239451.8%204 W · 190 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e48…828fbacked Nick Hardt65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.927352.1%38 W · 35 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda42…ba30backed Nick Hardt65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.927653.9%41 W · 35 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e69…553abacked Nick Hardt65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9292355.8%515 W · 408 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66ac…5e75backed Nick Hardt65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9294255.8%526 W · 416 L+19.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd82…6a10backed Nick Hardt65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9228557.9%165 W · 120 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Nick Hardt65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9249056.9%279 W · 211 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc06b…76ddbacked Nick Hardt65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.928050%40 W · 40 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa2e…9d98backed Nick Hardt65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.927361.6%45 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Matias Soto67c74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.581,83759.2%1,088 W · 749 L+8.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Matias Soto35c68.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.361,85357.7%1,069 W · 784 L+106.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Nick Hardt55c66.79$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.826,44946.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L-42.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed Nick Hardt57c65$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2313966.2%92 W · 47 L+17.0wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+22.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Matias Soto37c60.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.572,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x097c…630abacked Nick Hardt44c56.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8221052.4%110 W · 100 L-12.1wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Nick Hardt50c48.54$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.511,45950.1%731 W · 728 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Nick Hardt47c47.85$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1399244.7%443 W · 549 L-29.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4060…0f76backed Nick Hardt65c47.74$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.811464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18d8…400bbacked Nick Hardt43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5134627.7%96 W · 250 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9dd…13a2backed Nick Hardt65c46.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1524557.6%141 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Nick Hardt67c45.28$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.112,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2488…ff0ebacked Matias Soto41c43.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1848650.6%246 W · 240 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x476e…cfb9backed Matias Soto58c41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7835060.9%213 W · 137 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Nick Hardt70c39.71$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9173648.1%354 W · 382 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31b…200bbacked Nick Hardt53c39.66$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.827751.9%40 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabb5…ea33backed Nick Hardt80c34.93$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.991866.7%12 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick80cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x985d…33c9backed Matias Soto36c34.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,30036.9%480 W · 820 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac24…576ebacked Matias Soto37c34.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.827338.4%28 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Nick Hardt64c33.44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.016,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Nick Hardt49c30.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.321,48747.5%706 W · 781 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bc…3503backed Nick Hardt67c29.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8311968.9%82 W · 37 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa461…878abacked Nick Hardt61c26.81$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4321964.8%142 W · 77 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Nick Hardt45c25.89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.242,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Matias Soto63c25.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.376,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf388…5c83backed Nick Hardt64c24.59$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.81850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f48…4067backed Nick Hardt48c22.43$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d5…e65abacked Matias Soto57c21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.899250%46 W · 46 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x086b…660abacked Matias Soto53c20.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78d2…d224backed Matias Soto62c16.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.168665.1%56 W · 30 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.