TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: VfB eSports vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kaufland Hangry Knightsof VfB eSports, Kaufland Hangry Knights
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$162,845
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$176,117

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,845 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef4b…2577backed VfB eSports39c7,022$2,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,724.69540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed VfB eSports20c6,837$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.671,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Kaufland Hangry Knights73c6,224$4,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,690.131,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e6…4c4ebacked VfB eSports2c5,500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90583.4%2 W · 56 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+106.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed VfB eSports7c5,225$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.942,49739.9%996 W · 1,501 L-75.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x625e…4de3backed Kaufland Hangry Knights80c5,024$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Kaufland Hangry Knights76c5,000$3,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.0918971.4%135 W · 54 L+11.1wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed VfB eSports20c3,500$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f19…474ebacked VfB eSports10c2,264$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.819637.8%74 W · 122 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8421…4e30backed VfB eSports7c2,200$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15814941.6%62 W · 87 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed VfB eSports24c2,150$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.481,05323.4%246 W · 807 L-76.9wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-50.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Kaufland Hangry Knights70c1,997$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.8637245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4041…60f0backed VfB eSports5c1,816$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4216543%71 W · 94 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked VfB eSports17c1,596$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.9324234.7%84 W · 158 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70dc…1dfdbacked Kaufland Hangry Knights72c1,510$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.0910547.6%50 W · 55 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad46…e6a6backed VfB eSports2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0160…c757backed VfB eSports2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30500%0 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed VfB eSports27c1,425$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.6322146.6%103 W · 118 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked VfB eSports22c1,406$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.881,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed VfB eSports30c1,273$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.731,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a8a…9dfcbacked VfB eSports29c1,233$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.316732.8%22 W · 45 L-7.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Kaufland Hangry Knights60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2802…347dbacked VfB eSports13c1,000$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13421940.6%89 W · 130 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8840…f51abacked VfB eSports2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20422.4%1 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked VfB eSports18c969.01$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.251,95230.6%597 W · 1,355 L-166.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2b17…d36dbacked VfB eSports16c953.95$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15510834.3%37 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0af3…9cb5backed VfB eSports16c916.6$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.715740.4%23 W · 34 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kaufland Hangry Knights79c908.3$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.162,33640.4%943 W · 1,393 L-58.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02f0…9bb3backed VfB eSports9c870$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.720842.3%88 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Kaufland Hangry Knights79c838.48$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.3546258.4%270 W · 192 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked VfB eSports14c800$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10940916.1%66 W · 343 L-0.8wins0.00per pick16cpaid+23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Kaufland Hangry Knights64c774.77$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.252,49047.3%1,179 W · 1,311 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked VfB eSports32c763.41$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.91,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Kaufland Hangry Knights78c706.2$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.8561143.5%266 W · 345 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a86…4998backed VfB eSports39c703.56$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.5118330.1%55 W · 128 L-0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Kaufland Hangry Knights68c686.5$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.81,04450.4%526 W · 518 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed VfB eSports21c683.26$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.481,39743.7%611 W · 786 L-4.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed VfB eSports27c614.23$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.3212747.2%60 W · 67 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6374…6408backed VfB eSports6c590$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3718638.7%72 W · 114 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked VfB eSports26c562.19$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.417839.3%70 W · 108 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed VfB eSports18c550.61$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1117148%82 W · 89 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed VfB eSports14c550$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.558042.4%246 W · 334 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b80…e5dfbacked VfB eSports16c550$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8810223.5%24 W · 78 L-13.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Kaufland Hangry Knights76c506.58$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.582,82041.4%1,167 W · 1,653 L-14.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed VfB eSports14c500$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.425440.2%102 W · 152 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed VfB eSports20c499.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10096250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd2…2b8fbacked VfB eSports22c490.03$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8142451.2%217 W · 207 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed VfB eSports25c484.88$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.651,53654.8%842 W · 694 L+75.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Kaufland Hangry Knights73c481$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.9762942.4%267 W · 362 L-3.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb70f…996bbacked VfB eSports14c479$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed Kaufland Hangry Knights60c469$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.620544.4%91 W · 114 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed VfB eSports41c467$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.5611844.1%52 W · 66 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed VfB eSports22c453.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f16…284ebacked Kaufland Hangry Knights77c415.68$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.49266.3%61 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked VfB eSports23c402.78$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.52,92344.5%1,300 W · 1,623 L-91.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed VfB eSports29c400$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11652438.9%204 W · 320 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b39…1f68backed VfB eSports7c400$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2619846%91 W · 107 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5abe…d360backed VfB eSports7c400$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2616547.3%78 W · 87 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9845…9d6fbacked VfB eSports7c400$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2611844.9%53 W · 65 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe846…252bbacked VfB eSports14c400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620336.9%75 W · 128 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7049…85a5backed VfB eSports7c400$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2621439.3%84 W · 130 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d9a…d10fbacked VfB eSports17c400$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6822838.6%88 W · 140 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f95…bf8ebacked VfB eSports7c400$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2614642.5%62 W · 84 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8fe…359dbacked VfB eSports14c400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5614641.8%61 W · 85 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30ce…d485backed VfB eSports7c400$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2615343.8%67 W · 86 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x257c…a408backed VfB eSports26c383.53$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.636452.7%192 W · 172 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb039…c6d9backed VfB eSports21c380$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0616451.2%84 W · 80 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84b1…51b8backed VfB eSports7c367.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9110839.8%43 W · 65 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f56…50edbacked VfB eSports6c297.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.429946.5%46 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ba4…f918backed VfB eSports11c272.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020040.5%81 W · 119 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed VfB eSports25c267.3$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8320557.1%117 W · 88 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed VfB eSports18c263.96$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.512,18733.3%729 W · 1,458 L-71.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fa…ac8fbacked Kaufland Hangry Knights61c261.54$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5463248.3%305 W · 327 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x515d…0340backed Kaufland Hangry Knights70c224.4$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6734558.3%201 W · 144 L+17.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb35f…cf4cbacked Kaufland Hangry Knights75c219.38$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7843346.7%202 W · 231 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25ea…2675backed VfB eSports16c218.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3533456%187 W · 147 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc806…57c6backed VfB eSports11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2216243.8%71 W · 91 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bbb…0ac2backed VfB eSports11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2216242%68 W · 94 L-0.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9473…cba4backed VfB eSports21c194.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9652045%234 W · 286 L+1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed VfB eSports20c189.15$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6546436.4%169 W · 295 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked VfB eSports17c186.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.781,34931.1%420 W · 929 L-128.5wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2888…f1a4backed VfB eSports17c169.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6553532.3%173 W · 362 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba24…0e7fbacked VfB eSports14c169$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd30…fc9bbacked VfB eSports16c166.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.37247.2%34 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Kaufland Hangry Knights61c164$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9656650%283 W · 283 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed Kaufland Hangry Knights69c161.03$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6146362.6%290 W · 173 L-1.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x772b…5facbacked VfB eSports25c160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4085554.7%468 W · 387 L+33.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x520a…ade0backed Kaufland Hangry Knights63c159.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5314355.2%79 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked VfB eSports21c158.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.449841.6%207 W · 291 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26bd…e53bbacked VfB eSports16c156.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2513354.1%72 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x394c…b2bebacked Kaufland Hangry Knights72c152.07$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df3…9ac3backed VfB eSports27c145.03$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9840955.5%227 W · 182 L+23.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked VfB eSports20c143.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1555428.7%159 W · 395 L-30.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2285…2aeabacked VfB eSports26c142.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.959241.3%38 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a01…bc5ebacked VfB eSports30c127.89$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3734558.6%202 W · 143 L+16.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed VfB eSports39c127.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5077246.2%357 W · 415 L+18.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Kaufland Hangry Knights66c127$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.781,30147.2%614 W · 687 L-32.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee8…ce84backed VfB eSports16c122.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x267c…5bfdbacked Kaufland Hangry Knights60c122.15$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8627348%131 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed VfB eSports23c121.58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9652543.8%230 W · 295 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.