Premier League · resolved market
Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24a9adc9b81efec5cf51eda403a2bb46233c523b6183de47613f0735f6bacc40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c46…bd4abacked Over | 0c | 15,469$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 10,954$1,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,870.03 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 1,990$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.94 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 78c | 662.6$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.77 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 23c | 521.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc382…2b24backed Under | 78c | 512.53$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 22c | 499.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 23c | 499.41$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.86 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea4…be87backed Under | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 198 | 26.3%52 W · 146 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…ca90backed Under | 78c | 333$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 16c | 310.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dc…af80backed Under | 77c | 195$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 16c | 179$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 80c | 142.72$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa879…fff5backed Under | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…d9c8backed Over | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 31.9%46 W · 98 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 17c | 98.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 318 | 49.1%156 W · 162 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Over | 18c | 82.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f08…e128backed Over | 20c | 75.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 18c | 70.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 22c | 64.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 228 | 34.2%78 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Under | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 337 | 53.1%179 W · 158 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…c504backed Under | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…1f58backed Under | 78c | 36.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f4…6739backed Under | 80c | 29.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1217…690abacked Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)Tottenham Hotspur FC won
- Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.