Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x325b71befd81fcf52c39e47fc371b62c0b8e11933cb0cbb219a01b94be3fe357
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tottenham Hotspur FCof Manchester United FC, Tottenham Hotspur FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Manchester United FC | 17c | 11,435$1,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.13 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tottenham Hotspur FC | 77c | 6,985$5,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,577.2 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Manchester United FC | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Manchester United FC | 18c | 849.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Manchester United FC | 18c | 666$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Manchester United FC | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Manchester United FC | 21c | 389$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.69 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tottenham Hotspur FC | 59c | 357.65$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.22 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Manchester United FC | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Manchester United FC | 18c | 222.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0a…720dbacked Manchester United FC | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…9287backed Manchester United FC | 19c | 152.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…7a80backed Manchester United FC | 47c | 118.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…62f8backed Manchester United FC | 38c | 101.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a26…0498backed Manchester United FC | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…c733backed Manchester United FC | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -9.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe68e…8a50backed Tottenham Hotspur FC | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Tottenham Hotspur FC | 53c | 77.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…a352backed Manchester United FC | 15c | 76.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Tottenham Hotspur FC | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94c5…643bbacked Manchester United FC | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +147.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Manchester United FC | 37c | 47.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…2161backed Manchester United FC | 47c | 41.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)this page
- Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.