TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,922
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,208

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,922 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaab0…6364backed Yes45c8,805$3,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,918.554938.8%19 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+91.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes1c5,017$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6129520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x493a…e9fbbacked Yes3c3,017$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked No61c1,667$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.0218368.9%126 W · 57 L+25.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed Yes9c1,583$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.0215236.2%55 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bef…3304backed No50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4009830.6%30 W · 68 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed No50c717.72$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.862,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No49c411.12$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.1230664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbc0…1843backed No71c399.99$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.514372%103 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb211…10b3backed No57c350$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1509453.2%50 W · 44 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes5c330.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.596114.8%9 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.517358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes38c288.09$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.915,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c274.81$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No76c257.87$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.982,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc3…37b9backed No45c245.06$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.787464.9%48 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes46c238.59$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5946824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc72…ad49backed No51c210.29$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.1211565.2%75 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked No55c204$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.261365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes15c199.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3074023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes46c193.02$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.013043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+39%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06ae…0a09backed No79c185.26$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.061485.7%12 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+29.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No71c171.02$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.131,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…87e7backed No55c163.73$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-39.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87bd…9712backed No64c156.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.512548%12 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No80c150$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No63c147.08$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.652,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes22c141.39$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.977,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd3fe…6800backed No48c133.91$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.91425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes28c130$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0124238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes16c128.27$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.529,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No55c123.56$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.31,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd290…14f3backed Yes57c123.02$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaccd…befdbacked No60c108.82$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.532437.5%9 W · 15 L-5.0wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-47.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5079040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed No78c89.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7337942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No79c87.17$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.657,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c85$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.158,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb95e…8b12backed No61c80.09$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.095488.9%48 W · 6 L+12.5wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+40%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No55c77.61$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.054,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No59c75.61$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.812,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No48c68.34$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.291,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd673…1ca5backed No48c64.64$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.64922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+67.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked No79c63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2333561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes55c61.97$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.321,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No57c61.09$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.342,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cd5…6e78backed Yes75c60.94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No54c60.67$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.113,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6136…64f8backed Yes23c60.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed No42c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8754857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b60…558dbacked No75c58.14$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.412576%19 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe949…efccbacked No52c57.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.158100%8 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+82.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No60c57$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.847136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38ba…bcf9backed No40c55.19$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.191330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked No24c53.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4196015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe14a…c6c8backed No47c53.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.46459.4%38 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b9…bee4backed No45c51.09$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+88.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5536…70ebbacked Yes58c50.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.17540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes48c48.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.281,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No36c48$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.521,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa139…5bc2backed Yes62c46.28$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6511240.2%45 W · 67 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No79c45.45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5480560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked Yes56c43.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3942061.2%257 W · 163 L+19.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62b3…b43cbacked No59c42.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.46862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62fa…187dbacked No48c40.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.934634.8%16 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93ed…35c4backed Yes63c40.32$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5817861.2%109 W · 69 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No39c39.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3927771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed No70c39.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.234457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No60c38.74$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f7…d7cdbacked Yes62c37.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.482572%18 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1f9…1783backed No40c37.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-80.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes55c30.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No65c30.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.851762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes53c29.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.983,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c27.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.42,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No39c25.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5839159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7941…be53backed No72c23.72$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No73c22.49$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9c1…be67backed No54c21.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.773488.2%30 W · 4 L+7.2wins+0.21per pick67cpaid+29.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x072f…86b1backed No72c20.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7611151.4%57 W · 54 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1025130.7%77 W · 174 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5848…1e49backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.386362.9%543 W · 320 L-1.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81ab…5f31backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1028946.4%134 W · 155 L-14.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No61c19.81$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8153547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed Yes61c19.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1242049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No70c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7850373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No74c18.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.971,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d34…cd67backed No76c16.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.037050%35 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No61c16.73$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5116968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17f2…adcabacked No79c12.66$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.6611163.1%70 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8455…501fbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.54360.5%26 W · 17 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick75cpaid-19.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.