Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7ef7ed52f14f6e057cefc49937fc512723ca8fd6ad14dc8188eb81ab5228741
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8657…7065backed Yes | 20c | 938.01$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +412%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 16c | 509.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.49 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 33c | 481.62$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.12 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 69c | 363.48$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.6 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 257.41$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 242.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.21 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 47c | 239.25$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.97 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes | 34c | 227.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.84 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…05c3backed Yes | 24c | 216.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.82 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 64c | 195.26$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.31 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 26c | 195.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.01 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 77c | 191.3$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 21c | 190.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.3 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed Yes | 19c | 184.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.77 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 179.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.67 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 52c | 171.02$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 166.78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 22c | 163.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 51c | 147.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 144.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 24c | 143.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 48c | 142.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked Yes | 24c | 140.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.14 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 35c | 133.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 58c | 122$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 62c | 121.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 28c | 117.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 23c | 114.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 110.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 63c | 105.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 76c | 105$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed Yes | 22c | 99.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 48c | 96.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 95.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 94.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6b…f32bbacked Yes | 80c | 94.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 69c | 86.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 77c | 84.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 48c | 84.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 81.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 77.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b9…bee4backed Yes | 29c | 70.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 34c | 68.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 66.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 26c | 61.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 49c | 59.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 37c | 58.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 65c | 57.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 56.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 56.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 55c | 54.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 80c | 54.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 59c | 45.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 57c | 42.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed Yes | 47c | 40.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…feffbacked No | 69c | 36.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 59c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 45c | 28.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…4e2dbacked Yes | 65c | 28.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…9712backed Yes | 51c | 27.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 56c | 23.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 52c | 23.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…87e7backed No | 80c | 15.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.