Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Marquita Bradshaw be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x253a4a01dd09a35fd73e6671ddaacada7af886af4d5c196dfc9a6d50b1e735ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3872…bb1dbacked No | 13c | 2,193$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 75c | 1,932$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.94 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…9999backed No | 10c | 1,307$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.59 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 6c | 1,221$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 21c | 821.98$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.21 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 4c | 755.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 13c | 621.69$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.53 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 4c | 342.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 283.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 15c | 260.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 255.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 15c | 247.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 61c | 224.73$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.82 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 15c | 217.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 15c | 175.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.42 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 19c | 161.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 18c | 157.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 80c | 123.58$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 68c | 116.15$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 13c | 102$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 24c | 94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 19c | 69.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 54c | 68.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 63.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 29c | 63.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…04d4backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 28c | 41.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 70c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…a663backed Yes | 49c | 21.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…e454backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…5e41backed No | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked Yes | 71c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marquita Bradshaw be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee?this page
- Will Diana Onyeijaka be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee?No won
- Will Kevin Lee McCants be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee?No won
- Will Maria Brewer be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.