Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x253b10ff7cab71c583460e7ee6f1b156e3a398b0c366755c1cb25803a37281f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 20c | 781.32$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 43c | 505.43$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.23 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed No | 51c | 418.09$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.55 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 38c | 355.31$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.83 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 45c | 259.84$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 50c | 241$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 225$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.62 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 175.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 162.44$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 137.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 41c | 120.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 119.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 108.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 33c | 106.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 24c | 106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 31c | 95.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 75.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 80c | 74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 35c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 35c | 61.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf846…cb9fbacked No | 60c | 60.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked No | 67c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 58.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 55.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 52c | 54.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 51.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 44.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 42.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 39.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 79c | 37.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 44c | 36.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 31.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 70c | 29.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 79c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 62c | 25.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 53c | 19.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 16.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on July 20?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on July 20?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on July 20?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on July 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.