Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2563b55e0db857748a3b94fdaef229268efde81ad6f7a65ea0c9bb7a90187f62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 4c | 30,338$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.95 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Under | 28c | 1,134$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.46 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Under | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 72c | 238.66$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…4a85backed Over | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…cd56backed Under | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Under | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e4…e501backed Under | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Under | 29c | 168.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 19c | 153.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…5331backed Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4742…6576backed Under | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Under | 24c | 131$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 26c | 85.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Under | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Over | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Under | 26c | 66.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…5503backed Under | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 72c | 49.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 76c | 48.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…db17backed Over | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 26c | 40.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Under | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 72c | 39.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x768c…1b22backed Under | 29c | 37.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…4930backed Under | 32c | 31.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 72c | 30.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 74c | 27.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6905…d0e8backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 73c | 23.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf047…db3abacked Over | 72c | 19.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 68c | 16.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.