Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f735ae0ccbfe18b1be4e01a7b33bf305d8bf3b641522bfbea20569198687e35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 66c | 2,745$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.25 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…2effbacked No | 36c | 2,191$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…d85abacked Yes | 66c | 1,781$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 34c | 1,302$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.62 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 34c | 1,300$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.15 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Yes | 65c | 1,183$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 60c | 848.02$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.1 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 34c | 600$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 41c | 404.19$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.05 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed No | 39c | 388.43$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.39 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 34c | 336.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b57…95e1backed Yes | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 34c | 299.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed No | 35c | 286$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 31c | 263.67$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d723backed No | 39c | 249.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 38c | 219.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed No | 35c | 209.96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed No | 13c | 201$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e00…9cd3backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 60c | 193.08$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed No | 40c | 193.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 34c | 173.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfc…99f9backed No | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 23c | 118$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Yes | 66c | 107.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 66c | 101.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…6b83backed Yes | 66c | 101.52$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +78%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 61c | 92.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 66c | 91.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 39c | 74.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed No | 35c | 68.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde51…f222backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…1770backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc080…f9a0backed Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 67c | 44.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…5503backed No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked Yes | 61c | 40.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed No | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Yes | 61c | 31.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…5812backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…03e5backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 64c | 20.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.