Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabe7b8ae9217177be373893fe245f06ac52aa7da5541d81fe47d3bec01058a3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Bayern Münchenof FC Bayern München, 1. FC Köln
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed FC Bayern München | 70c | 7,043$4,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.3 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed 1. FC Köln | 30c | 2,979$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed 1. FC Köln | 26c | 2,647$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.33 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked 1. FC Köln | 30c | 1,691$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.18 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed FC Bayern München | 71c | 1,344$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.09 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed 1. FC Köln | 31c | 1,062$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked 1. FC Köln | 3c | 982.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed 1. FC Köln | 10c | 953.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed 1. FC Köln | 13c | 888.18$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.74 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked 1. FC Köln | 29c | 750.9$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.74 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked FC Bayern München | 69c | 724.26$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed FC Bayern München | 70c | 526.82$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.11 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…99b6backed 1. FC Köln | 29c | 501.49$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed 1. FC Köln | 30c | 348.05$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed 1. FC Köln | 30c | 333.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed 1. FC Köln | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked 1. FC Köln | 19c | 264.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked FC Bayern München | 70c | 217.83$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed 1. FC Köln | 23c | 207.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked 1. FC Köln | 9c | 180.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed 1. FC Köln | 30c | 160.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…763fbacked FC Bayern München | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed FC Bayern München | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…1910backed FC Bayern München | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed FC Bayern München | 70c | 138.69$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…2f0dbacked FC Bayern München | 72c | 137.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed 1. FC Köln | 31c | 133.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3e…7cd1backed FC Bayern München | 71c | 132.45$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed 1. FC Köln | 30c | 126.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed 1. FC Köln | 29c | 118$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed FC Bayern München | 70c | 114.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed FC Bayern München | 69c | 105.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked 1. FC Köln | 10c | 98.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed FC Bayern München | 70c | 96.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed 1. FC Köln | 23c | 88.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed 1. FC Köln | 12c | 85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8a…23d0backed FC Bayern München | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed 1. FC Köln | 30c | 70.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed FC Bayern München | 65c | 69.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1528…b976backed FC Bayern München | 71c | 69.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed 1. FC Köln | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed FC Bayern München | 71c | 58.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed 1. FC Köln | 30c | 51.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed 1. FC Köln | 30c | 45.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…29a4backed 1. FC Köln | 30c | 45.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3350…9588backed FC Bayern München | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed FC Bayern München | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed FC Bayern München | 66c | 38.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6664…5b75backed FC Bayern München | 70c | 35.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed FC Bayern München | 71c | 35.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked FC Bayern München | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed FC Bayern München | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked FC Bayern München | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked FC Bayern München | 70c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…ce0fbacked FC Bayern München | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…1c4fbacked FC Bayern München | 70c | 25.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed FC Bayern München | 71c | 21.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked FC Bayern München | 70c | 20.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked FC Bayern München | 71c | 19.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed FC Bayern München | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)this page
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.