TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FC Bayern Münchenof FC Bayern München, 1. FC Köln
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$347,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$351,511

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $347,741 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3fd9…1ef0backed FC Bayern München53c106,897$56,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,203.832055%11 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed 1. FC Köln47c58,591$27,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,537.581428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-46.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2a91…c6b1backed FC Bayern München51c31,923$16,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,642.326761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed 1. FC Köln49c29,219$14,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,317.1748141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed FC Bayern München53c24,151$12,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,350.942343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4939…9adebacked 1. FC Köln47c18,889$8,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,878450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+59.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed FC Bayern München51c14,883$7,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,292.514050%20 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed 1. FC Köln47c14,420$6,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,777.44254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x108d…b85dbacked FC Bayern München52c13,031$6,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,2231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked FC Bayern München52c12,039$6,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,778.683534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7829…cfd3backed 1. FC Köln47c12,015$5,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,646.9230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed FC Bayern München53c10,817$5,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,083.997443.2%32 W · 42 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked 1. FC Köln47c9,919$4,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,661.834949%24 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed FC Bayern München52c9,667$5,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,605.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed 1. FC Köln47c8,511$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0008448.8%41 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dce…c58ebacked 1. FC Köln47c8,398$3,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,947.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 1. FC Köln37c7,932$2,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,935.943,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FC Bayern München53c7,547$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,547.1611447.4%54 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked FC Bayern München53c7,053$3,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,314.834647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked 1. FC Köln47c6,776$3,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,189.751428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-35.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a15…dbacbacked 1. FC Köln50c6,714$3,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,357250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed 1. FC Köln49c6,400$3,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1366549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dfb…0b3dbacked FC Bayern München53c6,226$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,926.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed 1. FC Köln47c6,175$2,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,905.0622047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed 1. FC Köln48c5,890$2,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,827.182015%3 W · 17 L-6.7wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-67.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed 1. FC Köln48c5,147$2,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,469.675230.8%16 W · 36 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+193.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked 1. FC Köln49c4,800$2,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3525843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d1a…ebcebacked 1. FC Köln48c4,167$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9747…961ebacked 1. FC Köln50c4,040$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,020333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14d4…c4bfbacked FC Bayern München50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed 1. FC Köln20c3,825$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7652619.2%5 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed FC Bayern München53c3,774$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.581241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 1. FC Köln41c3,734$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.082,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed 1. FC Köln46c3,350$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,541.0430%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked FC Bayern München53c3,321$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,560.75875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+49.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15ab…97b6backed 1. FC Köln47c3,257$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed 1. FC Köln47c3,111$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.553073.3%22 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed 1. FC Köln48c3,068$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.4969851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked 1. FC Köln48c3,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45038646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0347…7e7abacked 1. FC Köln51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed 1. FC Köln49c2,800$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3726744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x89bd…3f72backed 1. FC Köln49c2,585$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82c1…c2c6backed 1. FC Köln46c2,570$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked FC Bayern München52c2,520$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.3928755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed FC Bayern München51c2,500$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.812857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed 1. FC Köln49c2,400$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1765944.1%26 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked 1. FC Köln48c2,370$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed FC Bayern München50c2,368$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1845349.1%26 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1c0…1f1cbacked 1. FC Köln47c2,233$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x191a…9d0dbacked 1. FC Köln47c2,219$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9618…6409backed 1. FC Köln47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed 1. FC Köln41c2,019$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.0828345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed 1. FC Köln49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9802948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89da…a6c2backed 1. FC Köln47c1,732$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed 1. FC Köln41c1,644$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.754641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed FC Bayern München50c1,643$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.52853.6%15 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed 1. FC Köln49c1,600$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7846647%31 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed 1. FC Köln49c1,600$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7845349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed 1. FC Köln48c1,585$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.815747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed 1. FC Köln48c1,552$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.912138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32e5…8b41backed 1. FC Köln47c1,469$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.6520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36f2…dab4backed 1. FC Köln48c1,277$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.0240%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed 1. FC Köln47c1,200$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5648158%47 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked 1. FC Köln49c1,200$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5885745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed 1. FC Köln49c1,200$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5886549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76aa…eff9backed FC Bayern München76c1,154$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed 1. FC Köln47c1,150$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed FC Bayern München52c1,148$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.1629855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed 1. FC Köln49c1,040$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.66446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked 1. FC Köln49c1,040$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.65745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed 1. FC Köln49c1,016$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.565040%20 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed 1. FC Köln47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4705870.7%41 W · 17 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xbdcd…0fe6backed 1. FC Köln47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f0…3651backed FC Bayern München51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4902100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+145.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed FC Bayern München52c906.58$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.169551.6%49 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaba…d031backed 1. FC Köln50c859.4$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe85d…ad4bbacked 1. FC Köln13c763.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57c3…44b8backed FC Bayern München71c732.39$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.39560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed 1. FC Köln49c640$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.65743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5192…df62backed 1. FC Köln48c624.78$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.93911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-64.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked 1. FC Köln49c624$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.767050%35 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked 1. FC Köln49c624$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.765646.4%26 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…86d3backed 1. FC Köln46c600$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed 1. FC Köln49c574$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.261163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked FC Bayern München53c571.04$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.391662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x71da…bc9ebacked FC Bayern München53c566.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.04757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70dc…1783backed 1. FC Köln47c542$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.74955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed 1. FC Köln47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2354240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8644…ad01backed FC Bayern München53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2351100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked FC Bayern München51c499.88$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.945455.6%30 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed FC Bayern München51c498.98$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.118420.2%17 W · 67 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-51.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed 1. FC Köln23c483.02$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.598844.3%39 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked 1. FC Köln25c443.24$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7449143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked 1. FC Köln4c440.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.814030%12 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed 1. FC Köln47c404.4$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.073836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed 1. FC Köln48c400.01$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.698451.2%43 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed 1. FC Köln49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1965451.9%28 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked 1. FC Köln49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1964650%23 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed 1. FC Köln48c396.08$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.123158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked FC Bayern München79c379.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.