Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26701326fbaaf40dba4108aa51b7aad8aa1fa7cd8d1b599c52fc4c250bcdd502
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 26c | 1,016$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.14 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 8c | 863.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 23c | 655.54$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 502.33$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 497.42$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 374.31$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 9c | 343.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…3515backed Yes | 20c | 308$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 255.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 25c | 249.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 14c | 233.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 22c | 228.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 201.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 181.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed02…4f98backed Yes | 8c | 175$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 174.49$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 19c | 166.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 7c | 159.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 22c | 152.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 25c | 134.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 75c | 121.47$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 117.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 99.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 15c | 87.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 18c | 81.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 19c | 74.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 71.26$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 76c | 70.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 23c | 69.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed No | 79c | 60.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 75c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 77c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 20c | 54.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4a6dbacked No | 75c | 53.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed No | 72c | 52.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 23c | 52.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 51.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 49.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 38.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 76c | 38.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 76c | 32.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 26.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 75c | 25.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 78c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 74c | 22.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 78c | 21.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 20.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 75c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 76c | 18.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 77c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 77c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 76c | 13.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.