TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,212
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,718

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,212 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde63…46c2backed No2c1,283$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.16837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f11…53b0backed Yes78c857.05$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.285349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d98…261ebacked Yes77c755.23$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.046750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No13c645.84$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.874,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c566.81$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.5312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No30c500.49$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.564,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x515f…a606backed No21c475$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7517553.1%93 W · 82 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x775c…28a9backed No21c475$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.758964%57 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No61c454.95$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.551,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes39c383.41$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.4121236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No22c379$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.115,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x599c…e29bbacked Yes40c366$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.532842.9%12 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+36.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No44c355.95$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.973,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes40c324.8$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.83930.8%12 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No46c322.47$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.5197152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No10c321.68$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.761820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x32d1…e5c8backed No8c320$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.94712.8%6 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+56%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No14c302.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.676,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No67c289.4$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.242,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4079…7126backed Yes80c268.41$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9514054.3%76 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes56c267.84$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8440265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes54c258$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.336,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x632e…6a56backed Yes32c218.85$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.854839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4fc…7a72backed No7c215.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.127159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed Yes34c211.37$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.6242754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c210.2$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.7310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed No61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12220347.8%97 W · 106 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No11c192.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0266543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No65c190.1$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.7345253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed Yes56c177.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0328244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No40c174.97$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2416847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No19c171.11$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.222,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No59c167$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.827461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes31c161.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.6120339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No25c159$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7549646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No62c150.49$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.131,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No35c150$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes66c148.55$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4541331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes36c133.45$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.21,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes37c132.46$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3442820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No46c121.04$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4918142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No63c111.55$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc89f…14a9backed Yes68c103.7$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1518650.5%94 W · 92 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No59c102$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.691,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes43c97.54$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.785,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed No33c91.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa753…d828backed No44c90.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes29c90.41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1967633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x463a…af96backed Yes57c87.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0212052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed No24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011519.1%22 W · 93 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-26.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No32c79.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6315236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes62c79.82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.114746.9%69 W · 78 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No65c79.49$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9235344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes31c79.34$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.351,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed No22c78.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6439346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes32c71.59$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.374,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes36c70.84$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.342,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No60c70.04$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.021,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No65c69$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.851,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes39c68.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.831,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes40c67.6$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.428,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…f3aebacked Yes33c66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No26c65.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.144,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes37c65$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.82,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes39c64.69$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7262555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes37c64.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.825536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked No60c64.2$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7216045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No19c62.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0848919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes35c62.49$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6210023%23 W · 77 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No18c56.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.255062%31 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2831…5473backed Yes76c54.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.21060%6 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No42c54.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9465353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes37c52.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2842547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes76c51.34$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.118945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes67c50.69$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.645538.2%21 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No61c50.63$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No61c50.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.617,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No20c50.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.082,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.51,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3321950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc7d…9cfbbacked No62c49.9$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.042060%12 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes34c49.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.161,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c85…b89cbacked Yes60c49.37$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.911675%12 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No60c49.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.772,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96ee…0662backed Yes39c44.81$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.247530.7%23 W · 52 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes36c44.61$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.611,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No58c44.58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.731,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes37c41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8330136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9a6…6216backed No63c41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.833135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9149…f2dabacked Yes60c40.92$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.372885.7%24 W · 4 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick62cpaid+41.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c40.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.459,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fe…74bcbacked No25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1018671%132 W · 54 L+19.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x017c…f8efbacked Yes51c39.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.327642.1%32 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No64c38.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.792,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No48c37.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0617747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadd7…8622backed No70c37.1$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9717766.7%118 W · 59 L-0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4dd…847fbacked No60c37.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.