World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2682960748b5b1a868fe9726901f21d93465a7b253c30826d346049d0e679973
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $449,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $507,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $449,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9aa9…b5a4backed No | 9c | 14,431$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked No | 9c | 11,308$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.99 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 9c | 10,399$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.23 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 10,300$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…da8bbacked No | 6c | 7,732$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked No | 19c | 7,172$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.97 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 13c | 5,125$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.72 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ce…a249backed No | 7c | 4,147$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked No | 16c | 3,773$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…ea11backed No | 9c | 3,217$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…4638backed No | 12c | 3,058$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.52 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 15c | 2,667$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed No | 7c | 2,537$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.65 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f09…8a8abacked No | 5c | 2,128$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 10c | 2,001$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.1 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 7c | 1,943$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 19c | 1,929$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.52 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…90babacked No | 8c | 1,417$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 17c | 1,240$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.34 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 12c | 842.46$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.44 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 80c | 770.8$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.16 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 7c | 725$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 12c | 624.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 6c | 536.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 21c | 499.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…970bbacked No | 21c | 481$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked No | 5c | 408.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked No | 12c | 399.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed Yes | 68c | 378.87$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.54 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 28c | 377$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.56 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 17c | 324.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 75c | 289.29$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.16 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd516…a937backed No | 5c | 256$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 11c | 235.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9115…5665backed No | 8c | 215$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x320d…8792backed No | 6c | 205$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…311fbacked No | 8c | 191$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 13c | 185.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d51…c20bbacked No | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 151.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed Yes | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2764…a2a8backed No | 7c | 145.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed No | 32c | 138$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…7b93backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 70c | 101$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 13c | 84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 23c | 62.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Yes | 65c | 53.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 52cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6b…13c6backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6983…fb47backed Yes | 70c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +676.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will another party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Green Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the People's Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.