TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, Nigma Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,056
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,076

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,056 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8479…40dfbacked Nigma Galaxy30c8,665$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,579.9210751.4%55 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BetBoom Team75c7,762$5,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,953.582,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Nigma Galaxy24c7,707$1,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,815.891,11336.2%403 W · 710 L-37.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Nigma Galaxy24c3,705$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.191855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked Nigma Galaxy1c3,104$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.721153.5%4 W · 111 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-88.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed BetBoom Team75c2,295$1,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.331,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Nigma Galaxy20c2,084$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.6478541.7%327 W · 458 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed BetBoom Team76c2,041$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.3752046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf775…a5b3backed Nigma Galaxy8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+52.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4574…273dbacked Nigma Galaxy28c1,802$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012630.2%38 W · 88 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked Nigma Galaxy23c1,739$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006031.7%19 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a47…235bbacked Nigma Galaxy12c1,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802015%3 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2744…7e85backed BetBoom Team78c1,440$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.92277.3%17 W · 5 L+5.1wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+36.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked BetBoom Team76c1,366$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.7532951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Nigma Galaxy8c1,321$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6751140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BetBoom Team80c1,254$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.721,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Nigma Galaxy24c1,150$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.4245940.5%186 W · 273 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfee…ed1fbacked Nigma Galaxy19c1,082$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.4410618.9%20 W · 86 L-14.0wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-52%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked BetBoom Team80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Nigma Galaxy26c999.99$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26022727.3%62 W · 165 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed BetBoom Team77c989.38$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.8765647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Nigma Galaxy25c941.92$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.1110546.7%49 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bf5…45b6backed Nigma Galaxy9c929.11$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.47825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-42.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Nigma Galaxy22c883$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.268137%30 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked BetBoom Team77c860.3$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.771,89447.7%903 W · 991 L+6.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe56b…2c03backed Nigma Galaxy20c853.6$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.289341.9%39 W · 54 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2112…38e9backed Nigma Galaxy5c852$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56da…449ebacked BetBoom Team76c750.86$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.69862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed BetBoom Team72c750$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.51,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Nigma Galaxy20c739.97$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.9988938%338 W · 551 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked BetBoom Team77c668.36$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.3796645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked BetBoom Team75c664.68$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.281,15147.8%550 W · 601 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed BetBoom Team77c647.4$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.922363.2%141 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed BetBoom Team78c641.15$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1514562.1%90 W · 55 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcd8…fd86backed Nigma Galaxy5c607.33$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.571338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1db…1619backed BetBoom Team76c604$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.96966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BetBoom Team73c581.6$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.671,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Nigma Galaxy18c555.95$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0937223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed BetBoom Team77c550$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.2412536%45 W · 80 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa949…7f5bbacked BetBoom Team74c538.32$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.3219849%97 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed BetBoom Team77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11580544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BetBoom Team71c495.72$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.572,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6202…8872backed BetBoom Team79c474$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.0312054.2%65 W · 55 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc8…8255backed BetBoom Team75c449.6$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.4560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked BetBoom Team73c392$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.844452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked BetBoom Team77c389.61$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6120367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Nigma Galaxy10c362.02$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5833644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Nigma Galaxy24c340$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.653533.8%181 W · 354 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0843…beb7backed Nigma Galaxy5c336$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed Nigma Galaxy18c321.72$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4611037.3%41 W · 69 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Nigma Galaxy25c319.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808842%37 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BetBoom Team73c303.32$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.442,36747.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9982…8b06backed BetBoom Team76c303.13$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.75650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Nigma Galaxy20c297$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.427636.2%100 W · 176 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed BetBoom Team76c294.11$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.2360349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf06c…c231backed Nigma Galaxy5c279$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.95633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-49.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62c3…90fcbacked BetBoom Team75c268.08$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.081080%8 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4fa…4a86backed Nigma Galaxy9c257$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.13277.4%2 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked BetBoom Team78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4148539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked BetBoom Team75c250$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.523555.7%131 W · 104 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed BetBoom Team74c250$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6547951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed BetBoom Team78c239.99$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.220448%98 W · 106 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d67…ec57backed BetBoom Team76c235.21$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d2…bd0ebacked Nigma Galaxy11c225$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf4…e54bbacked Nigma Galaxy5c224$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-61.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Nigma Galaxy16c214.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.131,69141.4%700 W · 991 L-40.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Nigma Galaxy24c204.45$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.078540%34 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1791…3e87backed Nigma Galaxy21c202.32$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6814652.1%76 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5867…2e20backed Nigma Galaxy18c200$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3525238.9%98 W · 154 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked BetBoom Team76c190$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.665447.4%310 W · 344 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed BetBoom Team76c186.36$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.733148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed BetBoom Team76c169.99$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.828544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Nigma Galaxy21c166.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.461,44348.7%703 W · 740 L+29.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59f7…c16fbacked BetBoom Team76c163.2$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.171353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked BetBoom Team78c150$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.755550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e28…2ef4backed BetBoom Team77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.877533.3%25 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb885…e677backed BetBoom Team77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+21.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked BetBoom Team77c120$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked BetBoom Team73c112.87$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2253139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf938…1249backed BetBoom Team79c107.46$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4617360.7%105 W · 68 L-13.6wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-13.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed Nigma Galaxy24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2440844.1%180 W · 228 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f7…a146backed Nigma Galaxy25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed BetBoom Team72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2817737.9%67 W · 110 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5c6c…998fbacked BetBoom Team76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246349.2%31 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56d6…c255backed BetBoom Team70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302544%11 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed BetBoom Team77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2392561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x62b7…f260backed Nigma Galaxy26c97.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520735.3%73 W · 134 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ec7…ed98backed Nigma Galaxy24c83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.922751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Nigma Galaxy21c83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4349732.2%160 W · 337 L-47.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Nigma Galaxy22c76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7212229.5%36 W · 86 L-18.2wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-41.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x3989…0539backed BetBoom Team79c75.47$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.853360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+32%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed BetBoom Team76c75$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1851550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9976…59acbacked Nigma Galaxy22c67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.032540%10 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91df…fd49backed BetBoom Team75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6714868.9%102 W · 46 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9235…3fbdbacked BetBoom Team75c66.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6615167.5%102 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fe…bcd7backed BetBoom Team76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.796847.1%32 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked Nigma Galaxy17c61.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510728%30 W · 77 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x080f…fcc2backed BetBoom Team76c56$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.441154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Nigma Galaxy34c52.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.065850%29 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc869…bc8dbacked BetBoom Team68c51.65$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6537441.2%154 W · 220 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.