Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x269c207616b4c5ea90b0faf477397e338aa81e53c29b173b5f401b288642b362
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 36c | 829.05$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.59 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 605.48$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 229.87$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 59c | 205$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.74 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 43c | 191$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.36 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 178.17$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.81 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 165.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 160$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…185cbacked Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 60c | 147.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 39c | 110.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 110.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 103$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 59c | 101.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 99.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 97.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 97.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Yes | 39c | 90.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 44c | 85.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 77c | 84.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 80.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 75.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 34c | 62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 58.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 42c | 55.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 67c | 53.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 50.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 46.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 47c | 41.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 55c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 40.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 40.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 54c | 38.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 35.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 35c | 34.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 32.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 35c | 29.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 57c | 25.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…5e85backed Yes | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 64c | 23.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 62c | 21.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 48c | 20.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 80c | 18.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 64c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 66c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 106-107°F on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.