Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9dcb7fc84423f5062c65f454c1e0cabffe3773a80f486639da65c11ae3c1376
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 60c | 1,609$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.97 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 1,280$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.17 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 444.66$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 441.25$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 388$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.92 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 304.85$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.6 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 299.98$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 238$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 58c | 192.35$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 52c | 191.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 40c | 190.35$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 184.36$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 184.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 175$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 42c | 132.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 123.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 38c | 103.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 97.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 43c | 93.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 79.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 60c | 74.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 40c | 67.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 40c | 67.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 59c | 65.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 41c | 64.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 50.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 48.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 22c | 45.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 40c | 44.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 40.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 59c | 40.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 30.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 37c | 29.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 65c | 26.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 67c | 24.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 54c | 20.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 60c | 17.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 58c | 17.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 106-107°F on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.