Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26c097fcb861ccc6943c1717c0dfca3b9ec26e42716ee147565e5ff11a7c84a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Under | 47c | 3,072$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628.35 | 1,353 | 38.6%522 W · 831 L | -68.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Over | 54c | 2,838$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.11 | 2,202 | 53.5%1,178 W · 1,024 L | +63.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…9e12backed Over | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Under | 46c | 1,718$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.97 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Over | 53c | 1,714$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.72 | 1,548 | 54.8%849 W · 699 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 48c | 1,451$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.13 | 2,261 | 37.3%843 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 53c | 1,367$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.52 | 1,206 | 44.7%539 W · 667 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 47c | 1,133$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.73 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Under | 46c | 521$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.34 | 602 | 48.5%292 W · 310 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed Over | 53c | 470$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.1 | 1,137 | 48.3%549 W · 588 L | +35.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c7…eca3backed Over | 55c | 399.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 135 | 37%50 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…d8cabacked Over | 52c | 381.25$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.14 | 228 | 57%130 W · 98 L | +21.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcef5…e9acbacked Under | 47c | 368.77$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.45 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbf…4605backed Under | 47c | 308$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.24 | 264 | 42.8%113 W · 151 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5f…555ebacked Under | 47c | 242.55$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.55 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Under | 45c | 240.52$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.29 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 650 | 50.5%328 W · 322 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Over | 53c | 188.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 240 | 48.8%117 W · 123 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed Under | 47c | 174.47$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Over | 50c | 172.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 1,517 | 50.6%767 W · 750 L | +75.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Over | 53c | 141.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 400 | 51.3%205 W · 195 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…37a3backed Under | 47c | 141$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…a93bbacked Over | 51c | 124$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Under | 45c | 108.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.47 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af6…4743backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 269 | 52%140 W · 129 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 461 | 43.8%202 W · 259 L | -33.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd2…0985backed Under | 45c | 51.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 49c | 38.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 1,398 | 49.4%691 W · 707 L | -20.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…5badbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Under | 47c | 30.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 634 | 46.4%294 W · 340 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c33…e0dabacked Under | 46c | 27.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45eb…36eebacked Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 54c | 18.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,213 | 39.6%480 W · 733 L | -44.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?this page
- Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)Invictus Gaming won
- Game Handicap: IG (-2.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+2.5)Invictus Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Knights RivalsInvictus Gaming won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 WinnerInvictus Gaming won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 WinnerInvictus Gaming won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 WinnerInvictus Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.