Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: IG (-2.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1211eac976fc2c2c15f6afeabe4e426e122a9d73d867ce15e52d737041dbd6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Invictus Gamingof Invictus Gaming, ThunderTalk Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc69b…2076backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 50c | 53,997$26,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,920.07 | 745 | 41.1%306 W · 439 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Invictus Gaming | 50c | 50,463$25,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,430.69 | 1,489 | 38.4%572 W · 917 L | -44.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 18c | 12,369$2,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,202.2 | 394 | 48%189 W · 205 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd76b…e9d5backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 76c | 10,173$7,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,720.28 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Invictus Gaming | 24c | 9,999$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,599.23 | 1,517 | 50.6%767 W · 750 L | +75.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…8c87backed Invictus Gaming | 74c | 6,823$5,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.47 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Invictus Gaming | 53c | 5,307$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,507.71 | 677 | 43.9%297 W · 380 L | -23.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked ThunderTalk Gaming | 23c | 3,590$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.67 | 800 | 49.9%399 W · 401 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c29…167ebacked Invictus Gaming | 27c | 3,380$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,467.74 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 71c | 2,642$1,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,871.29 | 1,213 | 39.6%480 W · 733 L | -44.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…9cc3backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.99 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…1c58backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 49c | 1,805$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.83 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Invictus Gaming | 67c | 1,691$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.93 | 1,226 | 43.6%535 W · 691 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Invictus Gaming | 58c | 1,652$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.02 | 1,079 | 55%593 W · 486 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 48c | 1,049$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.84 | 165 | 40%66 W · 99 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked ThunderTalk Gaming | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 526 | 52.7%277 W · 249 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Invictus Gaming | 30c | 689.54$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.45 | 2,385 | 32.1%765 W · 1,620 L | +44.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 76c | 634.93$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.55 | 552 | 29.3%162 W · 390 L | -38.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked ThunderTalk Gaming | 46c | 564.37$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.06 | 352 | 50.3%177 W · 175 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 73c | 500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 355 | 59.7%212 W · 143 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 49c | 499.97$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.99 | 650 | 50.5%328 W · 322 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Invictus Gaming | 36c | 490$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.4 | 2,572 | 47.2%1,215 W · 1,357 L | -36.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8a…61c3backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked ThunderTalk Gaming | 52c | 286.65$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 502 | 46.2%232 W · 270 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Invictus Gaming | 38c | 253.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.37 | 3,066 | 44.6%1,366 W · 1,700 L | -97.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ThunderTalk Gaming | 46c | 235.67$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.41 | 2,845 | 41.4%1,178 W · 1,667 L | -14.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked ThunderTalk Gaming | 17c | 228$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 827 | 42.9%355 W · 472 L | -24.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 75c | 184$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 295 | 35.3%104 W · 191 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…8177backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 52c | 183.92$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 692 | 53.5%370 W · 322 L | -22.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…c00fbacked ThunderTalk Gaming | 73c | 160$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 66cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc186…e96ebacked Invictus Gaming | 68c | 153.82$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 192 | 53.1%102 W · 90 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 32c | 138.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Invictus Gaming | 28c | 123.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 225 | 44%99 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc126…4079backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 35c | 121.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Invictus Gaming | 27c | 111$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 223 | 45.3%101 W · 122 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…03b2backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9f…0c25backed Invictus Gaming | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | +32.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 167 | 59.3%99 W · 68 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…719bbacked ThunderTalk Gaming | 69c | 85.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 69c | 84.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 1,042 | 54.8%571 W · 471 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Invictus Gaming | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,398 | 49.4%691 W · 707 L | -20.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Invictus Gaming | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 262 | 43.1%113 W · 149 L | -22.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…e717backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Invictus Gaming | 50c | 78.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8553…61dbbacked Invictus Gaming | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked Invictus Gaming | 73c | 68.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 691 | 48.8%337 W · 354 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4f…a4d3backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 72c | 66.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 72c | 62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 275 | 49.8%137 W · 138 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked ThunderTalk Gaming | 28c | 60.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 920 | 37.5%345 W · 575 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a2…7cbbbacked ThunderTalk Gaming | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 142 | 59.9%85 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…6549backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 72c | 46.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5252…a7cdbacked Invictus Gaming | 30c | 44.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 647 | 35.4%229 W · 418 L | -27.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…6715backed Invictus Gaming | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742b…110abacked ThunderTalk Gaming | 39c | 38.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Invictus Gaming | 53c | 33.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fc…0102backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…49c9backed Invictus Gaming | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…98bbbacked ThunderTalk Gaming | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Invictus Gaming | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 773 | 49.4%382 W · 391 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ada…5c6cbacked ThunderTalk Gaming | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 236 | 63.6%150 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…2101backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 73c | 20.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: IG (-2.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+2.5)this page
- Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)Invictus Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Knights RivalsInvictus Gaming won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 WinnerInvictus Gaming won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 WinnerInvictus Gaming won
- LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 WinnerInvictus Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.