TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Canucks vs. Ducks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Canucksof Canucks, Ducks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$718,479
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$755,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $718,479 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 561 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Canucks27c213,671$57,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155,950.9567051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Ducks73c75,470$55,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,093.1448545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Ducks73c42,200$30,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,806.0383652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebbb…4214backed Ducks57c37,975$21,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,793.7412835.9%46 W · 82 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Ducks65c23,264$15,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,098.3127448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Canucks27c20,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,6008657%49 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb6…cb97backed Ducks73c19,750$14,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,417.55350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Ducks73c18,540$13,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,534.3914553.1%77 W · 68 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Ducks73c16,359$11,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,942.0720756.5%117 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Ducks72c15,826$11,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,394.282,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Canucks28c15,541$4,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,190.931,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Canucks37c15,169$5,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,590.651,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc29a…7816backed Canucks41c15,000$6,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,849.988240.2%33 W · 49 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Canucks46c12,996$5,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,054.692,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x95de…c9b2backed Ducks73c12,993$9,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,484.893243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Canucks51c11,893$6,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,875.991,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Canucks37c11,067$4,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,919.9812654.8%69 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Canucks28c11,000$3,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,919.8641842.8%179 W · 239 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Ducks72c10,737$7,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,730.331,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Canucks26c10,636$2,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,844.2941850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Canucks42c10,112$4,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,901.18252.4%43 W · 39 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Ducks73c10,000$7,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,30025552.5%134 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cb3…8ed1backed Ducks72c10,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,2001838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Ducks48c9,982$4,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,801.3458841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Ducks73c9,109$6,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,606.7761950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Ducks56c8,998$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,040.4613850.7%70 W · 68 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Ducks69c8,501$5,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,865.431,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Canucks48c8,479$4,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,431.64139%16 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8401…0fa1backed Ducks23c8,396$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,961.721030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Ducks62c8,188$5,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,076.538348.2%40 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Ducks73c7,730$5,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,632.969038.9%35 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Ducks73c6,000$4,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3805261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Ducks57c5,989$3,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,438.130259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xf2b8…b908backed Ducks73c5,850$4,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,270.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Ducks52c5,120$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,660.2689636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b35…5da2backed Canucks51c5,082$2,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,512.822043.2%95 W · 125 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed Canucks27c5,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6501747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Ducks71c4,845$3,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,416.4518452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Ducks53c4,338$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,280.4540351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Canucks58c4,310$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.3432151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c45…0ac6backed Ducks54c4,215$2,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2621428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Canucks60c4,211$2,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,683.1989355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Canucks28c4,033$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,903.9464242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Ducks72c3,917$2,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,820.5810343.7%45 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Ducks73c3,798$2,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,772.24957.1%28 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Canucks28c3,750$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,700.0938849.5%192 W · 196 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Canucks62c3,405$2,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.9985464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Canucks57c3,384$1,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.542,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Ducks56c3,300$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,847.885756.1%32 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…a992backed Ducks43c3,221$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40012328.5%35 W · 88 L-9.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Ducks63c3,169$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,001.123969.2%27 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+41%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Ducks61c3,000$1,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,814.9375251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf715…2c2abacked Canucks28c2,896$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,084.974247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…a821backed Ducks73c2,891$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,110.1911951.3%61 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Ducks72c2,834$2,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,040.682,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Ducks72c2,799$2,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,021.9919759.4%117 W · 80 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Canucks28c2,777$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.4489249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Canucks27c2,497$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,818.176950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Canucks34c2,472$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,623.8716446.3%76 W · 88 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Ducks73c2,464$1,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,79426750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Ducks73c2,368$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72985250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Ducks73c2,367$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7284551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Canucks27c2,222$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,622.0611153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Canucks33c2,211$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,472.5210941.3%45 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9209…b4d5backed Ducks5c2,144$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.547055.7%39 W · 31 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Ducks73c2,140$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.111243.8%49 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Canucks39c2,105$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.4437754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Ducks72c2,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.820450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Canucks34c1,876$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.523,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58b6…c324backed Ducks43c1,850$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.53658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Canucks43c1,730$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.841,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x196e…e9d6backed Canucks58c1,724$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.141435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56cf…e292backed Ducks73c1,583$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.59450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Ducks71c1,545$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10055446.4%257 W · 297 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbdc…9da2backed Canucks71c1,539$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.762050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Ducks73c1,500$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0904850%24 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e71…eba7backed Ducks52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.912045%9 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Ducks55c1,456$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80036948%177 W · 192 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Canucks29c1,333$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.5114052.1%73 W · 67 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Canucks59c1,325$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.411950.4%60 W · 59 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Ducks61c1,290$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.1722250%111 W · 111 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Canucks19c1,276$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.738860.2%53 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ad6…caadbacked Canucks79c1,220$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-68.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Ducks72c1,181$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85010663.2%67 W · 39 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Ducks72c1,177$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.4431848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a5…312ebacked Ducks46c1,159$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.737244.4%32 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Canucks78c1,120$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.0152172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Canucks34c1,116$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.3833450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Canucks62c1,109$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.4227044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Ducks73c1,081$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.2666552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64da…2292backed Canucks28c1,078$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.6119154.5%104 W · 87 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb234…5b9ebacked Ducks51c1,052$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.893135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Ducks75c1,022$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.8999638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Canucks28c1,000$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7203339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85e5…9343backed Canucks27c1,000$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7302050%10 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Ducks73c1,000$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73010240.2%41 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Ducks72c999.86$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.954047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Ducks63c999.74$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.25276.9%40 W · 12 L+11.6wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+42.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Canucks40c987.96$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.6111045.5%50 W · 60 L-0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Canucks57c977.71$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.3827037.4%101 W · 169 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.