Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27b240ad043162f0320eefdbd3eed273c3029edcf5377dd210804bf3809fd3ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manchester City FCof Liverpool FC, Manchester City FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Manchester City FC | 80c | 5,295$4,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.48 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd070…a978backed Liverpool FC | 24c | 4,886$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.74 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Manchester City FC | 18c | 2,496$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046.72 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +12.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +125%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Liverpool FC | 20c | 2,018$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.96 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Manchester City FC | 22c | 1,789$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.74 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb726…4d2bbacked Manchester City FC | 76c | 1,246$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.99 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c3…301fbacked Liverpool FC | 24c | 940.92$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.46 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Manchester City FC | 76c | 520$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Manchester City FC | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Liverpool FC | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Liverpool FC | 24c | 332.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Liverpool FC | 22c | 276$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Liverpool FC | 23c | 242.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…0be0backed Manchester City FC | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Manchester City FC | 78c | 197.74$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 2,530 | 47.7%1,206 W · 1,324 L | +43.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Manchester City FC | 77c | 194.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce4…62fcbacked Manchester City FC | 80c | 190$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Liverpool FC | 25c | 182$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Liverpool FC | 19c | 140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 451 | 42.6%192 W · 259 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Manchester City FC | 22c | 120$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Manchester City FC | 75c | 108$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Liverpool FC | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Liverpool FC | 19c | 98.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,923 | 42.4%815 W · 1,108 L | -42.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Liverpool FC | 20c | 98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Liverpool FC | 17c | 89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…d32fbacked Liverpool FC | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Manchester City FC | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…bd53backed Liverpool FC | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Manchester City FC | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fb4cbacked Manchester City FC | 77c | 21.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Manchester City FC | 77c | 20.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34df…18b0backed Manchester City FC | 78c | 16.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50aa…70ddbacked Manchester City FC | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)this page
- Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Liverpool FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Liverpool FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.