Premier League · resolved market
Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1e550adf09d19845582109aebacfd703a2e705f96732f92286135aae82e8f02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 19c | 9,848$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.27 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Under | 78c | 7,659$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,658.65 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -8.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 6,385$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.36 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4594…b1acbacked Under | 78c | 5,099$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.4 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Over | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Over | 24c | 417.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Under | 77c | 390$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 300 | 59.7%179 W · 121 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 75c | 330$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed Over | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Under | 76c | 210$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Over | 25c | 159.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…e7f0backed Under | 79c | 151.11$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Over | 24c | 132$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…baeabacked Over | 24c | 73.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Under | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x408c…e57ebacked Under | 78c | 62.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 19c | 60.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Over | 23c | 56.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Over | 22c | 54.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Under | 78c | 45.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6250…8707backed Under | 79c | 41.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…9ac1backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed Under | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Under | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Under | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7805…ead7backed Under | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…4488backed Under | 79c | 31.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…5ee7backed Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…93eabacked Under | 78c | 24.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under | 77c | 20.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed Under | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Under | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…5abdbacked Under | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Liverpool FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Liverpool FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.