Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46d4e0686f89e58cb24d8c983e6251d42c7fda20fca4ae955e203ce28e99db10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liverpool FCof Manchester City FC, Liverpool FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Manchester City FC | 15c | 4,026$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.27 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Manchester City FC | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Manchester City FC | 17c | 1,177$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.14 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Manchester City FC | 14c | 1,071$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed Manchester City FC | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Manchester City FC | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Manchester City FC | 15c | 829.17$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.38 | 2,530 | 47.7%1,206 W · 1,324 L | +43.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Manchester City FC | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…9287backed Manchester City FC | 14c | 550$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0a…720dbacked Manchester City FC | 16c | 406.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Manchester City FC | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 181 | 23.2%42 W · 139 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Manchester City FC | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Manchester City FC | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Manchester City FC | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Manchester City FC | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Manchester City FC | 15c | 111.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Manchester City FC | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…8417backed Manchester City FC | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Manchester City FC | 13c | 82.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Manchester City FC | 22c | 76.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 432 | 41.9%181 W · 251 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…05f2backed Manchester City FC | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)this page
- Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Liverpool FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.