Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28c0058ce2a58fd6d245b4477352f54d3336c2a9ec19617f458f8a4041ffa01d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 69c | 1,078$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.35 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 49c | 817.71$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.41 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d7…e559backed Up | 65c | 774.8$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…d809backed Up | 74c | 734.55$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 57c | 486.69$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.73 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Down | 53c | 253.05$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.62 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Down | 27c | 250$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.5 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -10.8wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…5055backed Down | 23c | 237.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Down | 40c | 219.39$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.51 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Down | 35c | 200$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…4dffbacked Up | 57c | 193.12$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ca…e3b3backed Down | 26c | 172.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 49c | 150$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…e629backed Up | 71c | 150$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x720b…f155backed Up | 78c | 125.95$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Down | 29c | 112.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 72c | 105$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d47ebacked Down | 27c | 104.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Down | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Up | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 59cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…01ddbacked Up | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…68a8backed Up | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…0f0abacked Up | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Up | 72c | 95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…b2eebacked Down | 62c | 77.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…12a9backed Down | 27c | 69.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Up | 74c | 65.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…f38fbacked Down | 25c | 63.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23bf…d7e1backed Down | 27c | 57.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Down | 42c | 55.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Up | 70c | 53.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…27bebacked Up | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Down | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…1588backed Up | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…9943backed Down | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…7adabacked Up | 73c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Up | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed Up | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed Up | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…bc3bbacked Up | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…d702backed Up | 72c | 48.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Down | 48c | 47.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 77c | 43.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Up | 71c | 39.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c5…b07ebacked Up | 49c | 39.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Up | 75c | 29.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…50e4backed Up | 73c | 26.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Up | 58c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…966fbacked Up | 73c | 20.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c32…d55fbacked Up | 78c | 18.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…becabacked Up | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5476…651ebacked Up | 74c | 17.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe364…4b24backed Up | 72c | 14.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac4…31ebbacked Up | 77c | 14.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.