TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spirit Academyof Team Lynx, Spirit Academy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$277,818
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$318,471

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,818 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 250 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d20…a165backed Team Lynx76c35,726$27,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,143.549733%32 W · 65 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Spirit Academy51c30,099$15,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,748.4447646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Spirit Academy47c26,545$12,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,952.9689741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed Spirit Academy22c22,727$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,727.24966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+50.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Team Lynx46c19,675$9,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,125.3750347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Team Lynx66c18,328$12,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,102.8254058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Spirit Academy23c9,802$2,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,547.8912259.8%73 W · 49 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbfbe…dc24backed Team Lynx56c7,338$4,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,078.87350.7%37 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Lynx47c6,543$3,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0671,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed Spirit Academy37c4,424$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,780.0910961.5%67 W · 42 L+11.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Team Lynx52c3,963$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.4815050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Lynx52c3,950$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.5269132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Spirit Academy41c3,827$1,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,261.6832549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Spirit Academy63c3,741$2,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,383.7951049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Spirit Academy54c3,708$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,708.3853451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Team Lynx51c3,208$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,631.7437832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52e5…60babacked Team Lynx59c3,187$1,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.518959.6%53 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Spirit Academy44c3,129$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,738.6750850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea58…0308backed Team Lynx49c2,732$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.683641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Lynx62c2,561$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.4289238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Team Lynx60c2,537$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,514.6891553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked Team Lynx59c2,504$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.6721558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Lynx50c2,109$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.991,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed Spirit Academy55c2,000$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.9530452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Spirit Academy38c1,800$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,11626247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Spirit Academy50c1,785$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.1657449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit Academy55c1,697$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.892,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed Spirit Academy58c1,695$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.8615050.7%76 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed Team Lynx62c1,529$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.3212547.2%59 W · 66 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd305…fdfebacked Team Lynx78c1,282$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Lynx35c1,135$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.0189938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Team Lynx60c1,129$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.9223546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa108…abd3backed Team Lynx13c1,076$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.03771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Team Lynx44c1,055$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.5754246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x191b…5b67backed Team Lynx49c1,026$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.824346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3783…171dbacked Team Lynx50c1,000$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.757265.3%47 W · 25 L+7.5wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Team Lynx49c906.3$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.5327636.2%100 W · 176 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked Spirit Academy60c876.67$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.9517965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd2…b613backed Team Lynx73c819.72$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.514577.8%35 W · 10 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Spirit Academy17c808.7$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.2753844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe222…6019backed Spirit Academy59c804.11$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.692250%11 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9417…8440backed Team Lynx52c800$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4179455.3%52 W · 42 L+11.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Lynx71c780$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.761,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Team Lynx46c754.68$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.6817330.1%52 W · 121 L-16.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Team Lynx47c753.63$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.3848057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Spirit Academy54c713.87$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.0561449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Team Lynx58c660.87$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.9868345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Team Lynx64c649.14$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.9566545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Team Lynx47c639.14$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9948054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d9a…d10fbacked Team Lynx9c625$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2511445.6%52 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf201…f884backed Team Lynx68c603.47$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.528960.7%54 W · 35 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed Spirit Academy5c600.34$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.083323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa20d…6ba4backed Team Lynx54c580$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.214751%75 W · 72 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d19…e27cbacked Team Lynx49c542.86$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26612646%58 W · 68 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Team Lynx33c535$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.4550032.2%161 W · 339 L-47.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf206…df39backed Spirit Academy56c531.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.9916963.3%107 W · 62 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Team Lynx49c525.41$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.8353538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Team Lynx40c507.88$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.0519737.1%73 W · 124 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-33.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Team Lynx63c487.2$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.0825349.4%125 W · 128 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Team Lynx38c480$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.9321742.9%93 W · 124 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac70…97b6backed Spirit Academy62c475.19$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.11683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+31.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3e5…519dbacked Spirit Academy60c469.46$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.8212764.6%82 W · 45 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Team Lynx45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20072154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed Spirit Academy41c432.73$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.6819251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ce…d485backed Team Lynx32c417.31$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.467553.3%40 W · 35 L+7.2wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed Team Lynx49c417.29$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.8319547.2%92 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4419…fcf4backed Spirit Academy77c413.08$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.012759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb71e…641abacked Team Lynx77c404.55$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.96520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-71.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x02f0…9bb3backed Team Lynx20c400.07$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.229848%47 W · 51 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+38.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed Spirit Academy40c400$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24132445.1%146 W · 178 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7815…ade8backed Team Lynx67c400$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.523540%14 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc96…2791backed Spirit Academy45c399.03$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.26848.5%33 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x249e…4fa6backed Team Lynx78c387.99$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.717249.4%85 W · 87 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8efb…c0e6backed Spirit Academy71c356.95$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.9222259%131 W · 91 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4339…beeebacked Team Lynx55c350.8$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.648055%44 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed Team Lynx59c337.77$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006368.3%43 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f19…474ebacked Team Lynx33c333.33$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1108541.2%35 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Lynx59c325.31$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.081,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39ea…f75bbacked Team Lynx59c323.07$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.381729.4%5 W · 12 L-5.3wins-0.31per pick61cpaid-50.3%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x2802…347dbacked Team Lynx9c317.25$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5511444.7%51 W · 63 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabd9…dc3abacked Spirit Academy33c316.22$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.5418733.2%62 W · 125 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Spirit Academy49c313.65$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.659543.2%41 W · 54 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ee…ffe2backed Spirit Academy57c310.54$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.853951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Team Lynx48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14413635.3%48 W · 88 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed Team Lynx44c292.94$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7210651.9%55 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Spirit Academy49c289.35$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.551,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4087…048bbacked Team Lynx54c288.98$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.14247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…a690backed Spirit Academy52c282.33$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.52450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d16…e42bbacked Spirit Academy46c270.98$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.532250%11 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Spirit Academy41c267.91$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.391,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Spirit Academy53c261$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.9741455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Team Lynx63c255.52$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.7543860.5%265 W · 173 L+44.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x28f5…2035backed Team Lynx56c253.29$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.0833265.4%217 W · 115 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Team Lynx48c253.06$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.369644.8%43 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Team Lynx41c250$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.547951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Spirit Academy43c250$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.6670052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Team Lynx46c248$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6221540.9%88 W · 127 L-12.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd592…9618backed Team Lynx62c247.6$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.749636.5%35 W · 61 L-9.3wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-18.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Team Lynx69c245.62$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.6426050.4%131 W · 129 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dde…efdfbacked Spirit Academy52c237.26$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.743033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.