Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x296551868c5604b169b00c89700c3249b343bcfb1abf347cb5fd6b5b4926a743
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 890.65$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.9 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 437.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.58 | 1,566 | 16.3%255 W · 1,311 L | +22.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 436.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 5c | 433.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.73 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 11c | 420.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.5 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 62c | 406.54$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.84 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 8c | 386.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.99 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 11c | 381.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 5c | 289.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.66 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 14c | 226.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 634 | 24.1%153 W · 481 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 9c | 212.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 203.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.32 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…6987backed Yes | 73c | 200.83$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 165.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 144.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xff4a…4d7fbacked No | 12c | 143.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 33c | 138.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 13c | 133.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.39 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 130$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 57c | 126.3$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 29c | 118.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 13c | 115.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.03 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 22c | 112.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 103.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed No | 17c | 102.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 13c | 96.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.02 | 465 | 47.3%220 W · 245 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 14c | 73.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 250 | 43.6%109 W · 141 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 18c | 67.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 60c | 58.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 38c | 49.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 49c | 46.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,327 | 34.1%452 W · 875 L | +46.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…bd7abacked Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 52c | 27.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes | 80c | 22.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b2…a07ebacked Yes | 67c | 15.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 15.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.