Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4be97c14cbc33956225bb4874484341ab5b238161e800d02beb1688a0dfd1b9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 589.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 14c | 465.41$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 20c | 339.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 24c | 312.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Yes | 28c | 297.55$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 24c | 295.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 19c | 256.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 21c | 238.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 205.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 176.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 171.9$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 28c | 169.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 28c | 163.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 163.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 158.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 148.35$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 142.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 126.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 28c | 122.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 20c | 120.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed No | 79c | 118.93$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 117.47$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc914…c458backed Yes | 28c | 111.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 73c | 110.51$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 72c | 108.42$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed No | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 99.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99cd…bafbbacked Yes | 17c | 97.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 11c | 96.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 15c | 94.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed No | 72c | 94.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 20c | 91.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 90.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 89.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 85.61$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 27c | 76.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 19c | 75.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 30c | 71.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 68c | 68.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 19c | 65.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 25c | 64.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 64.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 26c | 59.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 79c | 56.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01b8…1ee3backed Yes | 26c | 56.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 80c | 54.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 25c | 53.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 26c | 49.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 73c | 49.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 27c | 48.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…1422backed No | 64c | 48.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 73c | 48.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 77c | 46.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 80c | 43.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 41.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 30c | 38.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 37.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 30c | 34.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 32.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 72c | 29.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 78c | 27.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…4e25backed No | 75c | 27.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x556d…c115backed No | 71c | 27.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…a20abacked No | 80c | 26.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 74c | 26.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 76c | 25.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…87b0backed No | 72c | 25.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 78c | 24.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 70c | 23.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…9966backed No | 66c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 72c | 18.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…54c9backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed No | 73c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 13.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.