Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a01245e562fb7e2d155a1bb2e58450b5f0bbc513c98f60dd847935da2e1eabc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 73c | 1,292$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.79 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 843.11$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5209…b249backed Yes | 22c | 550$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 513.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…742dbacked No | 79c | 443.05$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.36 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked No | 73c | 437.94$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.33 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 14c | 416.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 385.18$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 31c | 303.91$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.4 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Yes | 29c | 294.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed No | 67c | 278.4$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 72c | 265.05$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 29c | 263.83$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 245.86$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 211.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 13c | 196.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 33c | 193.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 42c | 187.83$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 12c | 177.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…bc37backed Yes | 13c | 165$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 10c | 151.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 28c | 148.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 15c | 137.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 130$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 34c | 123.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 116.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 107.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 49c | 99.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…55c4backed Yes | 18c | 95.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 16c | 93.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 92.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 88.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 80c | 86.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 37c | 84.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e3…700dbacked No | 72c | 80.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 15c | 77.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 57c | 76.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 76.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Yes | 44c | 76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 16c | 72.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 15c | 68.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 24c | 61.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…b9c9backed Yes | 44c | 61.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 73c | 56.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed Yes | 44c | 53.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 39c | 53.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 71c | 50.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 50c | 50.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 33c | 50.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 44c | 48.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 22c | 47.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 26c | 46.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 66c | 43.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 67c | 41.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…f3f3backed No | 74c | 39.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked No | 69c | 39.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 71c | 38.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 77c | 32.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…9966backed No | 77c | 32.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…81ebbacked No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 27.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…1422backed No | 74c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…b814backed No | 58c | 22.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 78c | 22.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 56c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b71…9fcdbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +41%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 74c | 19.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 74c | 19.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 18.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…9dadbacked No | 71c | 18.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.