Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29a6679ad274370a27e1527647673cc3d105a6eddb46eb5e7219088a7e547c12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 51c | 1,789$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.27 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 44c | 593.86$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.16 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 48c | 506$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 383.63$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.13 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 45c | 254.26$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.45 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 35c | 206.7$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 41c | 202.55$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.18 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 41c | 181.48$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 177.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 45c | 160.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 42c | 156.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 68c | 153$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 146.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 50c | 145$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 138.56$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…1781backed No | 43c | 127.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 49c | 124.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 44c | 122.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.87 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 121.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 107$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 102.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 49c | 101.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…ee64backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 35c | 97.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 82.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 75c | 81.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 23c | 79.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed No | 51c | 76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 61c | 72.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 70.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 67.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 66.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 15c | 65.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 42c | 65.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 64.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 45c | 56.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 39c | 51.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 46c | 49.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 49.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 59c | 48.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 53c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 42.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 60c | 41.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 48c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 36.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 38c | 36.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 33.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 51c | 32.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 55c | 30.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 29.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 52c | 29.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 29.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…0789backed No | 42c | 28.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 58c | 26.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 42c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 48c | 24.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…a1bdbacked Yes | 60c | 23.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 43c | 23.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…733ebacked No | 76c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.