South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29f2e7f369986061c2d7160a2c46b96e1ba62f893eb30440e317baac9841aab8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77fe…a351backed Yes | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 79c | 2,357$1,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.12 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 1,398$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.36 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 10c | 1,180$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,059$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…b4f2backed No | 71c | 609.93$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.89 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Yes | 17c | 462.77$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…e48ebacked Yes | 41c | 282.92$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…893abacked No | 69c | 249.53$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 30c | 247.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked No | 70c | 223$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 70c | 210.56$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…b37bbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 77c | 184.16$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…01e5backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319f…500bbacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 29c | 127$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3de…b025backed Yes | 41c | 121.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 29c | 119.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Yes | 29c | 112.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 29c | 96.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Yes | 18c | 90.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 81.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…1576backed No | 72c | 72.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked No | 71c | 66.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 52.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…7813backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…a298backed No | 70c | 42.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 70c | 25.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?this page
- Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-08-19?No won
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-08-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.