TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,223
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,367

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,223 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0484…4830backed Yes59c698.65$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.375,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked No40c437.61$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.6122740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No45c324.72$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.994,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No32c319.71$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.334,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No40c309.26$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.7970741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No45c254.57$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.222,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c254.44$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.9412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes66c217$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.8365749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b6…e9f5backed Yes70c177$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.752138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes58c158.97$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3925549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes64c156.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x517d…f41fbacked No50c154.49$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.913048.5%63 W · 67 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes39c151$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3763143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes40c120.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.61,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No58c115.93$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.439,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes42c112.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.681,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef11…a7a1backed Yes38c109.11$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.255335.8%19 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c108.43$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.948,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No60c107.8$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.281,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No24c106.87$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.56,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No55c102.51$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.464,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No41c100.66$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.671,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.121,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.777223.6%17 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4910…bd79backed Yes56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No62c99.79$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.062,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c99.33$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.29,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No32c98.8$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.431,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcc4…700cbacked No37c94.73$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.13742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No28c94.41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.011,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No58c93.35$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.113,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b35…bb20backed Yes76c87.96$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678263.4%52 W · 30 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes37c87.44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No52c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes34c78.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.65,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes22c73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.276,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes55c72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.64,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes54c70$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes61c66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.381,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x63b0…4122backed No61c65$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.558561.2%52 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd93e…7434backed No46c63.83$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4713337.6%50 W · 83 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes41c59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.192,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c55$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.44,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c50.54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.516936.1%61 W · 108 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2615545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1721339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No34c47.42$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.431,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes54c47.18$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.484,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No48c46.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.414,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes65c45.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8978663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes61c43.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.571,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa77e…aea7backed No66c43.61$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.852556%14 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes41c42.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.561,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes68c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.257747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.281855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes79c39.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.421964.8%142 W · 77 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes30c38.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4826344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes38c37.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.562,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes36c36.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.331,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb0…4346backed Yes55c35.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4715948.4%77 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No35c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.751,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes40c32.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2259144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes50c32.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1646743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No46c31$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.675,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No64c30.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0992761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.328649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.767336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.999571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.792,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4149…44c4backed Yes41c29.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1415449.4%76 W · 78 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No64c27.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.073,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes55c27.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa957…7638backed Yes68c27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.364555.6%25 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes61c26.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1631943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No42c25.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.972,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0abc…f04dbacked Yes40c25.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No65c25.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.781,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No59c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.34,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef1b…764fbacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107850%39 W · 39 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa922…9a52backed Yes67c24.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.67452.7%39 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes60c24.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8515152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked No51c21.13$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3328762.4%179 W · 108 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.71,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729354.3%159 W · 134 L-25.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed Yes51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.24,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.654234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No61c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6764167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes78c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.753560%21 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes73c14.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.361,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.