Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a433d4930bacab732b8dc3cdb30d57386293d490b3de826d9ea6401f9127052
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 698.65$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked No | 40c | 437.61$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.61 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 45c | 324.72$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 319.71$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 40c | 309.26$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.79 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 45c | 254.57$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.22 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 254.44$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 66c | 217$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.83 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…e9f5backed Yes | 70c | 177$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 58c | 158.97$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.39 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 64c | 156.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 50c | 154.49$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 39c | 151$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 40c | 120.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 58c | 115.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 42c | 112.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 38c | 109.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 108.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 60c | 107.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 106.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 102.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 41c | 100.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 99.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 99.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 32c | 98.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…700cbacked No | 37c | 94.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 28c | 94.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 93.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 76c | 87.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 87.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 78.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 55c | 72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 61c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 61c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 46c | 63.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 50.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 34c | 47.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 54c | 47.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 46.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 65c | 45.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 61c | 43.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa77e…aea7backed No | 66c | 43.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 41c | 42.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 79c | 39.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 30c | 38.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 37.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 36.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 55c | 35.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 40c | 32.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 50c | 32.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 64c | 30.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 41c | 29.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 27.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 55c | 27.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 68c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 61c | 26.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 42c | 25.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0abc…f04dbacked Yes | 40c | 25.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 25.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 67c | 24.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 60c | 24.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 51c | 21.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 73c | 14.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.