NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a716cd760290d488bf5a0b82232e6797a22c6364def8bcc3841b85d6789cfcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 3,198$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.75 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…9536backed Over | 56c | 1,942$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.14 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over | 54c | 1,477$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.35 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 1,468$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 42c | 1,119$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.97 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 46c | 1,103$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.72 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1969…a09cbacked Over | 57c | 702$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.86 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 44c | 589.44$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.89 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 56c | 255.36$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.36 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…6fd5backed Over | 71c | 230$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 15c | 211.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…5d79backed Under | 43c | 192.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 56c | 175$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Over | 57c | 164$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Over | 56c | 145.36$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 41c | 109$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 44c | 67.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Over | 58c | 52.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 56c | 44.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Under | 36c | 41.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Under | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Under | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Under | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked Under | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 45c | 40.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…18b9backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e1…5848backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Under | 43c | 35.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Over | 57c | 30.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 58c | 26.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d87…1b41backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…5042backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 157 | 58%91 W · 66 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…fa4cbacked Under | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Under | 44c | 23.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Hornets won
- Hornets vs. LakersHornets won
- Hornets vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.