TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Celticsof Thunder, Celtics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,026

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,026 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder51c263.46$134 inLost-$134.464,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Celtics48c200$96 inWon+$10461957.5%356 W · 263 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Thunder7c150$11 inLost-$10.524334.2%83 W · 160 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Thunder39c60.42$24 inLost-$23.561,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x263f…c744backed Celtics61c60.42$37 inWon+$23.5610357.3%59 W · 44 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x134c…eeefbacked Celtics52c57.69$30 inWon+$27.698250%41 W · 41 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Thunder38c40.6$16 inLost-$15.591,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Celtics63c34.41$22 inWon+$12.732,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Celtics57c30$17 inWon+$12.930348.2%146 W · 157 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9318…22b8backed Celtics46c29.3$13 inWon+$15.8219543.1%84 W · 111 L-12.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Thunder54c29.3$16 inLost-$15.821,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.