TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,823

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,823 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43b6…9a9bbacked Under50c6,929$3,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,485.045030%15 W · 35 L-6.0wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under51c6,024$3,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,954.762,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over53c5,624$2,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,953.59,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc167…51b0backed Over47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcea7…90fabacked Under47c4,652$2,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,465.56450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Under47c4,257$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,256.6438750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over51c3,447$1,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.211,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Under48c3,175$1,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,65125049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f0c…1cc0backed Under49c3,006$1,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.06250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e4…0d6bbacked Over51c2,962$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.5120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b1c…14dfbacked Over51c2,879$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.29250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe0…048bbacked Under49c2,838$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.372100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over50c2,807$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.618,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4875…803bbacked Under49c2,793$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.43250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd1…5975backed Over51c2,675$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4b3…d2acbacked Over51c2,669$1,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.19250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3f9…4db4backed Under49c2,548$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.482100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under49c2,398$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.984,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca18…9520backed Over53c2,031$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.43450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6959…5731backed Over53c1,769$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.5740%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over56c1,352$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75140451.5%208 W · 196 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under76c1,098$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.651,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fff…d384backed Over50c1,047$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.712458.3%14 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under46c900$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4863,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2ae…74f1backed Over53c852$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.56450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Over26c849.94$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.8626839.2%105 W · 163 L-0.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over54c730$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.26,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under45c664.61$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.722,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over52c577.62$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.164,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Under47c569.08$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.9223348.9%114 W · 119 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c10…829bbacked Over63c543.65$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.0310270.6%72 W · 30 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+11.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc40…abd3backed Over59c536.1$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.13956.4%22 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2804,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Over49c436.22$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21528838.2%110 W · 178 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Over54c400$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21666645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ca9…37d8backed Over55c346.13$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.373764.9%24 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e03…b448backed Over51c337.29$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.722853.6%15 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb417…06dcbacked Over61c327.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.99955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Over23c300$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6844821.4%96 W · 352 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Over54c222.22$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12095452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf22a…1697backed Under45c208.64$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.222846.1%105 W · 123 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under45c206.23$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.242,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under47c193.11$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.822,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1965872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over41c184.69$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.491,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac6c…d0d4backed Over49c154.76$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…6d3bbacked Over62c129.85$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over54c123.83$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.161,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under45c111.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.121,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Under47c106.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6166046.4%306 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Over50c104$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…a03dbacked Over54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.910957.8%63 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0707…310abacked Under48c97.8$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.826746.3%31 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7100…b346backed Over53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020147.8%96 W · 105 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0b5…e373backed Over54c92.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012359.3%73 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over29c92.32$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7750241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…ce87backed Over55c91.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015149%74 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x628a…464abacked Over55c88.49$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4930%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x020f…d93abacked Over50c84.96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.18540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over54c83.52$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4523657.2%135 W · 101 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Over52c78.45$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7930151.8%156 W · 145 L-1.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Over71c68.33$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.761253.1%325 W · 287 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under47c65.21$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.675,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb756…5846backed Over32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205066%33 W · 17 L+6.6wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under56c58.47$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.731,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Over52c57.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3025655.5%142 W · 114 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5b…08bbbacked Under46c52.29$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.248744.8%39 W · 48 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over52c50.36$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.193,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0674…d6c1backed Over52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2614236.6%52 W · 90 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Over53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.541052%213 W · 197 L-1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Over53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.569337.8%262 W · 431 L+2.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x218e…e49dbacked Over56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9548255%265 W · 217 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over31c47.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.763,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under47c45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.92,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc0b…4db0backed Over51c43.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2218459.2%109 W · 75 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4512…5d41backed Over49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021637.5%81 W · 135 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Over53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.237253.5%199 W · 173 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x389d…04bbbacked Over53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204168.3%28 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4cc7…908dbacked Over55c36.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.916650%83 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a67…52edbacked Over72c27.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012149.6%60 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Over50c25.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8387744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a33…9a46backed Over48c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1213953.2%74 W · 65 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Over54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.841354%223 W · 190 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24d6…1e0bbacked Over53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.582755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdea5…c77bbacked Over52c19.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41752.9%9 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under61c19.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6214860.1%89 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90a5…7759backed Under76c15.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.653855.3%21 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.