NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bba931abb4bbf413d36cc360879e7d0a7b66c4664b611ff1017e3cd5038848d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,842 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9175…bd29backed Under | 55c | 2,400$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.36 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 2,142$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.13 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Over | 46c | 1,959$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.73 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 54c | 1,549$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.54 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 1,146$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 54c | 1,038$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.52 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 703.46$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 46c | 561.44$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.86 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…5402backed Under | 55c | 546.01$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.01 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Over | 46c | 436.96$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 5c | 368.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 47c | 341.15$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0707…310abacked Under | 57c | 326.59$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.53 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 54c | 305.3$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.04 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf2…0f0dbacked Under | 60c | 297.92$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.23 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 39c | 261.23$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.68 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 55c | 254.55$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 28c | 253.84$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 47c | 212.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Over | 47c | 167.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 78c | 128.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 44c | 126.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 46c | 108.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 51c | 103.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…3896backed Under | 55c | 91.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 47c | 75.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…1f45backed Under | 48c | 57.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…1444backed Over | 50c | 54.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -6.8wins | -0.36per pick | 41cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Over | 54c | 49.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…664cbacked Under | 55c | 49.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 43c | 46.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…eb14backed Under | 56c | 44.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 44c | 41.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Under | 69c | 39.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 47c | 37.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…91d5backed Under | 56c | 35.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 47c | 35.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…67d0backed Over | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc6…095fbacked Over | 45c | 22.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Under | 54c | 19.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Celtics won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Celtics won
- Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Cason Wallace: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Cason Wallace: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Celtics vs. ThunderThunder won
- Celtics vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5Under won
- Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Derrick White: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.