TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,842 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9175…bd29backed Under55c2,400$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.363060%18 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under47c2,142$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.134,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd36…6ec9backed Over46c1,959$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.735044%22 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under54c1,549$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.546,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over45c1,146$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.599,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over54c1,038$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.522,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over46c703.46$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.688,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over46c561.44$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.864,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6eb…5402backed Under55c546.01$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.0111159.5%66 W · 45 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8efe…7b44backed Over46c436.96$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over5c368.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4350241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Over47c341.15$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16052146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0707…310abacked Under57c326.59$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.536746.3%31 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Under54c305.3$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.0423348.9%114 W · 119 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf2…0f0dbacked Under60c297.92$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.235056%28 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over39c261.23$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.683,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Over55c254.55$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14095452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over28c253.84$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.561,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Over47c212.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10043447.5%206 W · 228 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Over47c167.16$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1583158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under78c128.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.265872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Over44c126.85$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.811,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Under46c108.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.341,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under51c103.72$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.672,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95fe…3896backed Under55c91.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0717046.5%79 W · 91 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over47c87$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.275,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over47c75.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.33,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1c…1f45backed Under48c57.2$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.495743.9%25 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6330…1444backed Over50c54.16$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.08195.3%1 W · 18 L-6.8wins-0.36per pick41cpaid-89.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.565855.6%366 W · 292 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33c8…68d7backed Over54c49.57$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.773951.3%20 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe8c…664cbacked Under55c49.18$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.181741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over43c46.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.873,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd10…eb14backed Under56c44.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.722857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Over44c41.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2960945.8%279 W · 330 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b67…e889backed Under69c39.73$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.310951.4%56 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under47c37.59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.762,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf05f…91d5backed Under56c35.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7812857.8%74 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over47c35.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.751,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1052…67d0backed Over55c23.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcc6…095fbacked Over45c22.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.310545.7%48 W · 57 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f1…d87bbacked Under54c19.22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8215752.2%82 W · 75 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.