TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs SAW Youngsters - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Butterflyof Butterfly, SAW Youngsters
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,194
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,194 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Butterfly61c4,095$2,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596.845,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked Butterfly55c3,200$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44075056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked SAW Youngsters49c1,685$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.4575245.3%341 W · 411 L-1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked SAW Youngsters45c1,547$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.57,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd305…fdfebacked SAW Youngsters69c1,428$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.551275%9 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd747…076cbacked SAW Youngsters38c1,103$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4203850%19 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Butterfly38c1,050$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.9419252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked SAW Youngsters53c877.81$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.073,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2405…e055backed Butterfly61c853.93$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.2815948.4%77 W · 82 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked SAW Youngsters37c796.07$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.5534140.8%139 W · 202 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1186…0355backed Butterfly55c776.99$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.1123356.2%131 W · 102 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Butterfly65c721.28$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.84,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked SAW Youngsters45c642.91$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.222,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd2…0abfbacked SAW Youngsters41c604.18$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2507843.6%34 W · 44 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Butterfly50c550$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27517240.1%69 W · 103 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Butterfly62c534.23$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.152,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb11…7901backed SAW Youngsters44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+27.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked Butterfly50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25025944.8%116 W · 143 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d40…dd57backed SAW Youngsters48c458.45$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.8412340.7%50 W · 73 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef20…8f64backed SAW Youngsters37c413.28$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9112334.1%42 W · 81 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99d1…ee7abacked SAW Youngsters23c400$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9222454.5%122 W · 102 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked SAW Youngsters55c384.42$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.593,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed Butterfly55c366$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.3335153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed SAW Youngsters19c323$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.471,08342.1%456 W · 627 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked SAW Youngsters39c300$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11691945.8%421 W · 498 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed SAW Youngsters40c266.5$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.613738.7%53 W · 84 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked SAW Youngsters43c240.73$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.693,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb7e…9546backed SAW Youngsters43c240$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.274146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed SAW Youngsters46c232.68$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.332,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed SAW Youngsters45c232$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9551446.9%241 W · 273 L-22.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b95…07e5backed SAW Youngsters45c224.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10032443.5%141 W · 183 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ade…fb15backed SAW Youngsters45c223.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0719748.7%96 W · 101 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Butterfly25c211.36$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.5292456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Butterfly63c206.78$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5199148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c7…4332backed Butterfly51c195.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9817644.3%78 W · 98 L-17.8wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-20.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6668…9b4dbacked SAW Youngsters36c175.98$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.351844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked SAW Youngsters43c172.8$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.322447.8%107 W · 117 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked SAW Youngsters37c154$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2127940.5%113 W · 166 L-16.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x499f…b72bbacked SAW Youngsters51c142.18$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2914544.8%65 W · 80 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked SAW Youngsters51c125.92$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.952,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Butterfly56c124$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2139955.4%221 W · 178 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x87a3…5857backed SAW Youngsters45c107.54$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3919447.4%92 W · 102 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd09f…521abacked SAW Youngsters46c104$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8411536.5%42 W · 73 L-7.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed SAW Youngsters38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3880942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1967…30b5backed SAW Youngsters42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4229246.9%137 W · 155 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc84f…bb5bbacked Butterfly49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.16844.1%30 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffa…7710backed SAW Youngsters35c98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.310643.4%46 W · 60 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked SAW Youngsters51c85.85$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.174,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Butterfly60c84.95$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.211,84847.6%879 W · 969 L-55.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Butterfly49c82.74$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.921,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked SAW Youngsters51c80$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.112,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x557e…5007backed SAW Youngsters46c75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.871533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x312c…ceecbacked SAW Youngsters46c75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.54247.6%20 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4bb…22a9backed Butterfly57c66.46$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4727647.1%130 W · 146 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57e6…9622backed Butterfly61c56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.614356.6%81 W · 62 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5be…bc54backed SAW Youngsters44c52.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.14325.6%11 W · 32 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x127d…4706backed SAW Youngsters71c49.03$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353066.7%20 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Butterfly41c47.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.322,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Butterfly25c45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.755,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed SAW Youngsters38c44.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0467750.2%340 W · 337 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked SAW Youngsters52c41.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.741,31551.1%672 W · 643 L-99.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb188…8be3backed SAW Youngsters40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.824558%142 W · 103 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed SAW Youngsters38c33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.542,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked SAW Youngsters50c33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.542,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Butterfly35c30.08$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.73,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked SAW Youngsters36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.849149.9%245 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde57…666fbacked SAW Youngsters38c28.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.945133.3%17 W · 34 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed SAW Youngsters35c28.58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070042.3%296 W · 404 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed SAW Youngsters47c27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.692,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Butterfly63c26.45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7944747.2%211 W · 236 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed Butterfly59c26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6615244.7%68 W · 84 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff5a…6cedbacked SAW Youngsters58c25.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.753040%12 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-28.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked SAW Youngsters42c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.382,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cf1…d7febacked SAW Youngsters40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0823835.3%84 W · 154 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7275…8b45backed Butterfly66c22.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.695736.8%21 W · 36 L-7.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-25.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x59d8…ad87backed Butterfly54c21.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7412754.3%69 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.