NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b0f9356857abb52612a68bd7bad7d0a01d679bbe79f3a6f58092fcd8d7f13e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Over | 52c | 14,403$7,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,965.57 | 603 | 51.4%310 W · 293 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 44c | 4,143$1,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.82 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…355abacked Under | 45c | 3,840$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -9.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Under | 47c | 3,750$1,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,762.31 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 2,429$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Under | 44c | 1,621$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.9 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 1,310$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 55c | 1,143$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 56c | 1,045$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.64 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca0f…780bbacked Under | 44c | 810.91$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…5d81backed Under | 44c | 590.91$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 57c | 522.81$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.81 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 43c | 520.23$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.66 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 38c | 489.86$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.3 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 444$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.87 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Over | 52c | 432.09$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.94 | 419 | 47.7%200 W · 219 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 48c | 380.07$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.07 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 44c | 362.5$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 43c | 279.19$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.05 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 56c | 242.86$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.86 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…5754backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 48c | 127.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 45c | 104.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…8d33backed Under | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 74c | 91.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…1094backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Over | 56c | 58.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf406…c9bfbacked Under | 47c | 53.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7178…8fb9backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f3…f487backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Over | 76c | 26.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 236 | 44.1%104 W · 132 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed Over | 56c | 23.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a0…d84fbacked Over | 56c | 23.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Under | 47c | 22.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 60c | 20.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 49c | 20.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 233.5this page
- Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Grizzlies vs. KingsGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Over won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Kings (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.