NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb48ac1332d94ab1ea66d36be03fe1aeef7f8d0c1c9675619ec3c76daccdfa931
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43a4…7170backed Over | 53c | 19,586$10,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,201.3 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +39%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Under | 47c | 8,475$3,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,983.15 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 3,182$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 47c | 2,787$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.79 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 45c | 2,045$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.42 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 2,000$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 1,370$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 47c | 1,286$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598 | 377 | 47.5%179 W · 198 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb6…9c79backed Under | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 53c | 989.21$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.86 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…f78fbacked Over | 25c | 963.3$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.47 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 25c | 827$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.86 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Over | 52c | 615.77$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.77 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 75c | 604$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Under | 44c | 602.27$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 47c | 350.43$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.29 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 44c | 303.93$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.73 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 55c | 289.79$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.86 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 44c | 263.6$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 255.67$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.09 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 244.84$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.72 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 38c | 241.53$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 62c | 179.03$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…8122backed Over | 63c | 95.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Over | 56c | 89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 88.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 35c | 77.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd7…373ebacked Over | 63c | 53.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Under | 44c | 44.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb87…4611backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 44c | 44.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 61c | 39.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 64c | 38.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Under | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 47c | 34.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Under | 35c | 32.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…fc90backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 63c | 26.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 228.5this page
- Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Grizzlies vs. KingsGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Over won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Kings (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.