NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4234e1368f6c9874be791cf8e936cf787da48099bdb1cf6374f809cc4f8a034d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Under | 49c | 6,132$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 4,159$2,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…e1a1backed Over | 52c | 1,100$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.82 | 96 | 63.5%61 W · 35 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 1,027$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.96 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 36c | 843.52$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.51 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 64c | 834$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Over | 50c | 570.66$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.33 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 541.15$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.19 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 49c | 527.01$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.91 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 50c | 521.92$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.96 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 49c | 239.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…5754backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 192.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Over | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Over | 59c | 67.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…7276backed Under | 50c | 57.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 49c | 53.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd364…2778backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 57c | 26.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 25.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 43c | 23.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…0c83backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 193 | 46.1%89 W · 104 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 232.5this page
- Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Grizzlies vs. KingsGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Over won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Kings (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.