NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54b628871efcc407722ce1901912eefd60c51365002c7adf2844b45ea7926726
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63e2…1557backed Over | 51c | 4,706$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,305.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 46c | 3,012$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 52c | 2,011$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.25 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 1,876$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.57 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 52c | 1,850$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.05 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b4…aefebacked Under | 49c | 1,755$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4639…1b4dbacked Under | 49c | 1,603$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04cf…eedcbacked Under | 49c | 1,347$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Over | 53c | 1,209$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.71 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 47c | 1,133$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.51 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 53c | 1,133$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.51 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 1,035$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 68c | 863.92$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 35c | 718$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.29 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 53c | 689$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.75 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 56c | 482.16$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.33 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Over | 49c | 429.8$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.2 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 393.8$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.13 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abf…6024backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 56c | 234.71$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.37 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 60c | 212.13$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Over | 49c | 204$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 46c | 179.22$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 56c | 172.53$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.59 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 47c | 167.73$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…cf50backed Under | 60c | 160.04$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Over | 52c | 148.47$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Under | 48c | 139.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 28c | 72.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Under | 27c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 304 | 52.6%160 W · 144 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 57c | 39.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f3…f487backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 30.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 231.5this page
- Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Grizzlies vs. KingsGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Over won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Kings (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.