NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Nets: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b19101c7879712d90166aaaaa09516655355b13f6e7b24ea708711abba942a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 60c | 2,905$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.16 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 2,624$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.9 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 40c | 2,023$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.55 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 55c | 1,751$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…5813backed Under | 54c | 700$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 40c | 490.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 39c | 461.23$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.76 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 42c | 266.66$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.66 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 32c | 246.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2239backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Under | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 194$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 189.55$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…362ebacked Under | 63c | 137.04$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe360…7d01backed Under | 56c | 125.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2017backed Over | 55c | 53.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 51c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 45c | 37.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Under | 57c | 36.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 442 | 43.7%193 W · 249 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…8938backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…f908backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…5b88backed Under | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.3wins | -0.30per pick | 54cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Nets: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Nets won
- Celtics vs. NetsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Nets: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Nets: O/U 221.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Nets: O/U 222.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Nets: O/U 223.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Nets: O/U 224.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Nets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-11.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.