TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Nets: O/U 224.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,404
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,405

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,404 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd696…8a49backed Under52c4,612$2,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,213.871,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf5d…7253backed Over48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92011242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under57c2,632$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.5887750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over45c1,352$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.972,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x426f…e76bbacked Over45c1,100$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49517644.9%79 W · 97 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under52c1,024$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.138,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd83…0aa7backed Over49c877.55$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under53c733.45$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.359,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d4…23e8backed Under54c727.27$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.582441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa216…179bbacked Over49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004949%24 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25036943.4%160 W · 209 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08dd…55b0backed Over50c395.66$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.832951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x443d…017fbacked Over51c294.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15023550.2%118 W · 117 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd94f…ee62backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+40.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69dc…336dbacked Over47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9412950.4%65 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Under53c132.08$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0816837.5%63 W · 105 L-20.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-25%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Over44c120$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.835447.7%169 W · 185 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5034645.7%158 W · 188 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under56c95$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.82,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d30…2645backed Under50c53$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.57448.6%36 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3c7…7070backed Under54c46.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.34963.3%31 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…748cbacked Over49c40.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.997454.1%40 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60dc…7b1ebacked Over50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205954.2%32 W · 27 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-11.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over52c38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.959743.6%260 W · 337 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.665,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9840…cb31backed Over50c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142544%11 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.