NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Nets: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3445358f3d2da12309e802c19a1f43f2796b5882a5268fe051adb6af06ca1a1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 52c | 4,612$2,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,213.87 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 57c | 2,632$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.58 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 45c | 1,352$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.97 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Over | 45c | 1,100$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 1,024$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.13 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…0aa7backed Over | 49c | 877.55$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 733.45$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.35 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 54c | 727.27$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.58 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa216…179bbacked Over | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…55b0backed Over | 50c | 395.66$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.83 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd94f…ee62backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Under | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 56c | 95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 50c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…7070backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…748cbacked Over | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…7b1ebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Nets: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Nets won
- Celtics vs. NetsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Nets: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Nets: O/U 221.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Nets: O/U 222.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Nets: O/U 223.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Nets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Nets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-11.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.