Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b1c5809ff010a96248d448ee042caa70e9d3b9a1c1f8df72be65031509be27c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arsenal FCof Arsenal FC, Sunderland AFC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sunderland AFC | 79c | 11,218$8,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,851.81 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Arsenal FC | 21c | 9,227$1,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,254.54 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Arsenal FC | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Sunderland AFC | 69c | 920.67$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.26 | 192 | 53.1%102 W · 90 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…3ab8backed Arsenal FC | 27c | 764.83$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.83 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -11.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Sunderland AFC | 72c | 516$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.52 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Arsenal FC | 32c | 350$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…7a80backed Arsenal FC | 29c | 347.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Arsenal FC | 31c | 322$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.18 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Sunderland AFC | 72c | 310$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.2 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Arsenal FC | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Arsenal FC | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf148…00ebbacked Sunderland AFC | 78c | 239.37$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arsenal FC | 22c | 219.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.03 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Arsenal FC | 21c | 191$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.84 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sunderland AFC | 71c | 119.69$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Arsenal FC | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe109…8ec3backed Arsenal FC | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Sunderland AFC | 66c | 81.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Arsenal FC | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Arsenal FC | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…c64abacked Sunderland AFC | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Sunderland AFC | 79c | 59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Arsenal FC | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 327 | 37.6%123 W · 204 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Arsenal FC | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Arsenal FC | 28c | 49.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sunderland AFC | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Sunderland AFC | 70c | 28.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Sunderland AFC | 75c | 16.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Sunderland AFC | 68c | 15.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Sunderland AFC | 80c | 12.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 426 | 58%247 W · 179 L | +24.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Arsenal FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Sunderland AFC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.