TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arsenal FCof Arsenal FC, Sunderland AFC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$126,450
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$135,591

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,450 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe56d…2b65backed Arsenal FC54c29,901$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,900.551457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked Sunderland AFC51c20,856$10,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,636.721163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Arsenal FC49c20,000$9,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,199.9720545.4%93 W · 112 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Sunderland AFC46c18,236$8,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,388.392,21249.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L-9.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5fd…8c6dbacked Sunderland AFC46c15,708$7,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,218.491723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.7wins-0.28per pick51cpaid-58.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Sunderland AFC49c15,286$7,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,479.92,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Arsenal FC54c7,067$3,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,253.8510636.8%39 W · 67 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Sunderland AFC49c3,296$1,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614.232,55847.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Arsenal FC49c3,108$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,585.3219253.1%102 W · 90 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Sunderland AFC48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20072249.9%360 W · 362 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Arsenal FC52c2,222$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.562339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f12…70d4backed Arsenal FC51c2,157$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.862070%14 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+29.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Arsenal FC48c2,059$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.6850644.3%224 W · 282 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Arsenal FC51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.787145.1%32 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd070…a978backed Arsenal FC52c1,602$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.122330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Arsenal FC51c1,462$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.616654.5%36 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Sunderland AFC67c1,194$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Arsenal FC53c1,100$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5181,28348%616 W · 667 L-5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Sunderland AFC47c992.29$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.5952454.2%284 W · 240 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sunderland AFC49c924.57$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.26,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Arsenal FC56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.8616753.3%89 W · 78 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Arsenal FC44c785.59$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.424,76841.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Sunderland AFC45c735$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.7575850%379 W · 379 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed Arsenal FC50c720$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3604553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Arsenal FC55c700$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.551847.3%245 W · 273 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Sunderland AFC48c502.44$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.178146.9%38 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce24…6239backed Arsenal FC50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2508134.6%28 W · 53 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+29.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12c6…0691backed Arsenal FC53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2354643.5%20 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-20.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Arsenal FC52c480.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.7735428.5%101 W · 253 L-20.1wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf148…00ebbacked Sunderland AFC49c419.94$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.7720%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…7be6backed Arsenal FC54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+45.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4300…5c69backed Arsenal FC50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2007653.9%41 W · 35 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+21.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Arsenal FC50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20019426.3%51 W · 143 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc274…6d59backed Arsenal FC52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.626144.3%27 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83f6…62f8backed Arsenal FC52c384.4$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.514360.5%26 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Arsenal FC44c350$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.7510338.8%40 W · 63 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Sunderland AFC49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507326%19 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Arsenal FC53c251.35$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1310838.9%42 W · 66 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Sunderland AFC48c250$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.530149.5%149 W · 152 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0756…38c9backed Arsenal FC52c211.54$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.545543.6%24 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Arsenal FC50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1007851.3%40 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Sunderland AFC49c199.98$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9929343.7%128 W · 165 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefa1…ea5dbacked Arsenal FC54c194$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…edcabacked Arsenal FC52c193.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.6217048.8%83 W · 87 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x350e…bd56backed Arsenal FC52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.31650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Arsenal FC52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3114544.1%64 W · 81 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e52…9078backed Arsenal FC52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.315837.9%22 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5dc6…65f2backed Arsenal FC46c189.99$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+82.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc049…7a80backed Arsenal FC53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.68742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Arsenal FC54c182$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7245751.2%234 W · 223 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Arsenal FC49c173.19$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.339749.5%48 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2c…3fb4backed Arsenal FC55c158.36$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Sunderland AFC46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6911443.9%50 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3864…857fbacked Sunderland AFC67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001650%8 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7226…873dbacked Arsenal FC50c147.2$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.63043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2412…b5a1backed Arsenal FC51c127.63$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5410757%61 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd79c…a0e7backed Arsenal FC52c117.31$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.313647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fd9…b161backed Arsenal FC52c115.38$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.386238.7%24 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa9a…099fbacked Sunderland AFC49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504139%16 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Arsenal FC50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x756c…66c7backed Sunderland AFC48c99.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Sunderland AFC49c99.96$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.987045.7%32 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd944…07d5backed Sunderland AFC49c99.76$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.882245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x95b9…3762backed Arsenal FC52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.15666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc21d…727ebacked Arsenal FC52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.153748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98e9…8dbebacked Arsenal FC52c94.23$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.236636.4%24 W · 42 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b7…b46fbacked Arsenal FC54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.591546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc5…c4f1backed Sunderland AFC49c81.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Arsenal FC50c78$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396056.7%34 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Arsenal FC50c71.12$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.565255.8%29 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Sunderland AFC50c70.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3420448.5%99 W · 105 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90aa…5f6cbacked Arsenal FC58c70$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.41275%9 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Arsenal FC52c67.31$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3119048.4%92 W · 98 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Arsenal FC52c67.31$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3112446%57 W · 67 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Arsenal FC60c62$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.068648.8%42 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e45…402bbacked Arsenal FC52c61.54$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.541266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x561e…3e87backed Sunderland AFC50c60.02$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305028%14 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x11f2…a7a0backed Sunderland AFC50c59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.251656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked Sunderland AFC52c57.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3036036.1%130 W · 230 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7676…ada4backed Arsenal FC52c57.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.696659.1%39 W · 27 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+33.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Arsenal FC53c57.49$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9742658%247 W · 179 L+24.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Arsenal FC44c57.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0445142.6%192 W · 259 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6677…575cbacked Arsenal FC50c56.88$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.44757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5edf…98a5backed Arsenal FC53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadd4…b42bbacked Arsenal FC52c53.42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.644647.8%22 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa42b…45d2backed Arsenal FC57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.515955.3%88 W · 71 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Arsenal FC53c48.84$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7533753.1%179 W · 158 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Arsenal FC52c48.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0814463.9%92 W · 52 L+9.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Sunderland AFC51c47.32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.042853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Arsenal FC39c46.15$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1518444.6%82 W · 102 L+0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Sunderland AFC49c46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.549053.3%48 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb55…159abacked Arsenal FC62c45.01$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.01922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-57.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Sunderland AFC47c45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.271,63652.9%866 W · 770 L+32.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa66d…0859backed Sunderland AFC51c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.952556%14 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3526…8b74backed Arsenal FC50c44$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223969.2%27 W · 12 L+6.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+31.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Arsenal FC49c43.55$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2129044.8%130 W · 160 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde6e…eeeabacked Arsenal FC48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.67850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2344…6ba3backed Arsenal FC41c40.64$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.088463.1%53 W · 31 L+10.8wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb2b4…01fdbacked Arsenal FC52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4613561.5%83 W · 52 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f5…8797backed Arsenal FC52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.467953.2%42 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.