TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,856
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,907

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,856 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f74…8774backed Yes42c737.61$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.4321236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No70c735.27$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.842,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No79c529.81$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.334,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes29c428.13$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.938,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes8c341.75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.929436.2%34 W · 60 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+94.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf325…f8e0backed Yes11c325.34$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.114047.5%19 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No60c317.18$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.962,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No67c296.61$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.064,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No58c284.98$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.618,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No64c216.27$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.144,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c209.29$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes40c208.47$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.031,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes30c187.4$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.355,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes36c173$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9354735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes41c170.49$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6335429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes64c166.24$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.23,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked No51c153$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.436930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No57c151.44$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.862,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes38c145.12$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes41c140.18$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0411438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c130.8$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.625,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes40c127.81$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.822,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf742…400ebacked Yes33c121.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9511614.7%17 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No60c119$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.94,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No57c111.4$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.442,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes26c110.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1944945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes24c110$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes37c105$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1518235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No66c98.44$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5271057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1655…08e1backed No53c97.73$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.613063.3%19 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No71c92.98$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8779947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed Yes20c92.34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0438146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No59c90.11$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.243,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c87.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.449,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x899c…81b0backed No51c86.27$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.27955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No61c79$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8163143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes41c76.92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3419345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c75.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbe44…1ad3backed Yes42c72.02$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+72%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No63c71.01$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3839956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked No58c69.17$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.056966.7%46 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c69.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.584,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes36c62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.461,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e86…5c70backed Yes44c60.2$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.68757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.383,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes21c57.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7857747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes39c49.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4767633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No32c49.23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.241,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2076936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No58c47.02$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7571649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No60c47.02$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.961,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed No63c45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4517433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No65c44.62$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6251156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes38c43.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.654335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes37c41.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3411947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c3a…8792backed No41c40.63$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1518045.6%82 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4854853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.23,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7135…4c0dbacked Yes41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd572…6270backed Yes39c35.81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed No63c34$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4225560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6265…c059backed No59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.91936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No47c33.36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6818240.1%73 W · 109 L-16.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa747…bebcbacked No62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.264463.6%28 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes38c31.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.821,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes39c30.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1214546.9%68 W · 77 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No77c25.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9256322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes42c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.556845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1047738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No70c24.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.441,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8a5f…d2d9backed No58c24.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.382437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes42c24.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2430136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No68c23.85$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.714,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7b8…dd29backed No60c23.16$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.31955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed No61c20.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.15054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.43,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755261.6%340 W · 212 L-2.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.53,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No65c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.651,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x414c…e621backed No67c18.9$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.154100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No69c17.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.321,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.