Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x037679f6550d5d80b5873e99e007a024a27d7c5c5dd4bf79920902471a4b579a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 7c | 1,769$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.01 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 62c | 1,196$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.82 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 948.29$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 42c | 792.69$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.43 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 56c | 664.48$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.08 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 537.3$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.33 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf325…f8e0backed Yes | 53c | 471.13$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.23 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 453.02$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 14c | 437.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed No | 4c | 369.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 43c | 368.48$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.83 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked No | 46c | 325.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.32 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 318.18$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.11 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 308.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 28c | 259.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.17 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 259.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 256.74$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.57 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 12c | 252.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked No | 8c | 240.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed No | 75c | 208.4$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.12 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 207.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.24 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 15c | 197.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 197.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 50c | 193.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 188$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 29c | 186.36$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 37c | 178.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.44 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed No | 68c | 177.15$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 23c | 174.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e9…8070backed No | 10c | 166.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 22c | 155.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 147.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…a5eabacked Yes | 35c | 142.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 37c | 140$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 65c | 139.78$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 68c | 134.59$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 57c | 133.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 14c | 124.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 40c | 123.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.83 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 23c | 120.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 16c | 109.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 18c | 109.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.55 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 40c | 105.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…7a71backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 65c | 98.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 97.15$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 29c | 94.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf3…4807backed No | 74c | 94.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.8wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed Yes | 25c | 90.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 89.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 45c | 87.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 85.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 82.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 63c | 82.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 63c | 82.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 81.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 27c | 71.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 70.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 34c | 70.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 69.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 68.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 47c | 68.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes | 58c | 64.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 43c | 62.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 46c | 61.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 28c | 61.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 37c | 59.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 38c | 59.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 45c | 58.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 67c | 56.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 55.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 19c | 53.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 48.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 43c | 45.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked No | 79c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…86b4backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…d0c5backed Yes | 34c | 42.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 64c | 37.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ef…82b8backed Yes | 70c | 34.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 32c | 33.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 69c | 28.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.