Fifa International · resolved market
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2baefa7e152b1069180ad0e7b6d4b3bb229f113c4ce20d2220c83f61f2b26f4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 21c | 7,028$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.3 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 21c | 4,061$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.73 | 592 | 30.1%178 W · 414 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…2771backed Over | 17c | 2,219$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 79c | 2,025$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.25 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 79c | 1,653$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 21c | 1,429$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 894 | 43.4%388 W · 506 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 80c | 1,300$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 331 | 49.5%164 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 79c | 1,218$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.78 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf12…76debacked Under | 80c | 1,010$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 16c | 854$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.84 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 79c | 739.89$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.08 | 145 | 64.1%93 W · 52 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 765 | 51.6%395 W · 370 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 21c | 609$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.66 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Under | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 374 | 51.6%193 W · 181 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 11c | 577.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 79c | 487.26$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 79c | 443$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.03 | 716 | 38.4%275 W · 441 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 19c | 422.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 331 | 20.8%69 W · 262 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed Over | 21c | 309.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 184 | 35.3%65 W · 119 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 19c | 298.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 343 | 30%103 W · 240 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 20c | 239.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 413 | 44.1%182 W · 231 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…541abacked Over | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 180 | 40%72 W · 108 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…3ec8backed Over | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 255 | 32.9%84 W · 171 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ba82backed Under | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 76 | 63.2%48 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 78c | 187$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb424…3b71backed Over | 11c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Under | 78c | 100.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 183 | 71%130 W · 53 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 187 | 69.5%130 W · 57 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 21c | 91.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 79c | 82.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 397 | 46.3%184 W · 213 L | -28.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae4…83dfbacked Under | 80c | 81.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7e…f568backed Under | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Under | 79c | 70.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 85 | 72.9%62 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada6…9447backed Under | 79c | 68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…740cbacked Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 90 | 33.3%30 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…af39backed Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 79c | 39.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 80c | 29.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 146 | 53.4%78 W · 68 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadcb…c2bebacked Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a5…445fbacked Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d1…a3c0backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5this page
- Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)Uzbekistan won
- Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)Uzbekistan won
- Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5)Netherlands won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.