Middle East · resolved market
U.S. military action against Iran in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bb0599cb3f3223bd000006dd28fcd901c9920e78e6d31337552c0f8ec9d9a5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $495,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $688,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $495,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 7c | 71,225$4,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,957.53 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed Yes | 10c | 50,000$5,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,092.77 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…9188backed Yes | 4c | 7,797$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 14c | 7,355$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.06 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 10c | 7,233$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 5c | 7,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…046ebacked No | 13c | 4,614$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,014.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed Yes | 10c | 3,818$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.29 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,451$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.39 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 13c | 2,306$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,006.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +187.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,059$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.08 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 2,004$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed Yes | 54c | 1,250$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.35 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…92cabacked Yes | 17c | 1,025$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.83 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd298…42aebacked Yes | 3c | 1,015$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes | 3c | 999.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…b8f5backed Yes | 10c | 875.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…6fddbacked Yes | 2c | 825$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 13c | 770.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe215…c8afbacked Yes | 18c | 700$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…50a4backed Yes | 6c | 607.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…745cbacked Yes | 9c | 602.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 599.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x469b…7e0ebacked Yes | 20c | 598.35$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 6c | 533.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…84e8backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 13c | 488.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 5c | 487.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 4c | 475.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked No | 13c | 468.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…bbd7backed Yes | 3c | 429.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 16c | 403.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 4c | 349.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…68d9backed Yes | 12c | 325$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…edb9backed Yes | 14c | 290$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…a363backed Yes | 14c | 281.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…00b3backed Yes | 18c | 277$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5416…5a71backed Yes | 16c | 221.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed Yes | 16c | 212.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d0…e6cdbacked Yes | 18c | 210.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 187.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x717c…7e55backed Yes | 19c | 176.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b26…e68bbacked Yes | 14c | 170$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdf…c10fbacked Yes | 14c | 152.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 17c | 146.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdd…aff9backed Yes | 13c | 139.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da1…e431backed Yes | 8c | 126$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…beafbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed Yes | 16c | 123.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ae…0327backed Yes | 13c | 114.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…184ebacked Yes | 14c | 109.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd00…e43ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa7…ec40backed Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8960…93fbbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.