MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bb910f17837abada10e09b451f8225c992229cffdc7eddf583f0ef2e48f2f2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 4,952$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.07 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd64d…28a6backed Over | 51c | 2,336$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.06 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 53c | 1,842$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.64 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 49c | 1,659$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.08 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 56c | 1,416$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.64 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 51c | 1,204$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.79 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x861a…1f15backed Over | 49c | 974.25$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.38 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a41…1cbbbacked Under | 60c | 849.54$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 50c | 776$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 49c | 755.1$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.15 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 659.88$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.02 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 49c | 603.51$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.79 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 590.49$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked Under | 61c | 565.44$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.52 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 72c | 549.55$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.87 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 61c | 548.53$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.29 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…97b5backed Over | 36c | 525.17$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 63c | 430.31$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.98 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 50c | 388$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 52c | 373.54$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.24 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 51c | 369.32$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.35 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b87…f71bbacked Over | 51c | 300.89$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3313backed Over | 50c | 292$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 50c | 291.09$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…2e44backed Under | 71c | 276.72$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.22 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 274$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.74 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 27c | 259.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…12ddbacked Over | 47c | 207.88$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 52c | 194.24$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…c2b6backed Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 77c | 184.85$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 39c | 184.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 59c | 171.62$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 29c | 151.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Over | 39c | 122.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 61c | 119.01$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 59c | 105.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581a…8e5fbacked Over | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 57c | 96.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…f325backed Under | 71c | 72.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 60c | 72.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 51c | 58.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 76c | 52.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959b…64edbacked Under | 57c | 51.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 56c | 48.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 72c | 47.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 72c | 47.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 72c | 47.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 72c | 47.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Under | 60c | 44.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 77c | 44.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e6…a613backed Under | 50c | 42.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 70c | 40.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 68c | 36.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 60c | 30.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 55c | 29.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 53c | 27.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c59…7052backed Under | 59c | 24.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 50c | 23.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 51c | 22.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 61c | 20.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Under | 60c | 17.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 72c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.